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GIRO STAGE PREDICTOR GAME: Stage 15

It's Giro time, and the Stage Predictor Game is back. Everyone is welcome to play. Feel free to join with us at any time and compete for stage wins, but most important will be the hotly-contested overall competition. Since last year's winner got a pink Giro cap signed by Sergey Lagutin, we'll continue the tradition and call the overall competition the cappello rosa. Courtesy of the ever-generous holmovka, there are again some fabulous prizes and trophies:

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Results Stage 14

Of the favorites, Santambrogio was the key pick today; and of the outsiders, Sanchez. As the only player with both these riders, dallsopp emerged from the mist to take the solo stage win.

Stage 14 top 10:

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Seahorse holds her lead in the cappello rosa competition. Can the chasers exploit the uncertainlty over tomorrow's stage to close the gap?

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Spreadsheet download with complete results

pdf of complete results for last 3 stages

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Stage 15

Sunday 19th May

Cesana Torinese - Col du Galibier 149km 145km

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Given the uncertainty over stage 15, and the possibility of multiple changes, I will take the deadline to be the moment that they actually roll out, rather than any preannounced time.

Roadbook
Short Alpine stage with two climbs in excess of 25 km. Descent from the stage start to Susa, where a ‘pedalable’ climb starts up the Colle del Moncenisio (25.7 km, 1.600 m gain in vertical height). Long descent interrupted by the short climb to Aussois (intermediate sprint). From St. Michel de Maurienne, 35 km 31km climb to the Col du Galibier, broken by the short descent to Valloire after the Col du Télégraphe.

Original stage profile. Current plan is to ride all but last 4.25km.

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Col du Mont Cenis
Cat 1a - 25.7km @6.2% - GPM @ 90km 86km from finish

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Col du Telegraphe
Cat 2a - 11.9km @7.2% - GPM @ 23km 19km from finish
Col du Galibier
Cat 1a - 18.1km @6.8% 13.8km @6.4%

Original profile. Current plan is to omit last 4.25km.

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Useful links

Gazetta Giro home page

Download "Garibaldi" official roadbook (huge file 92Mb)

Steephill Giro page

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Rules

Pick 4 riders for the stage, the order of your picks doesn't matter. All your riders can score.

Riders score points down to 10th place. Less popular riders score more points than heavily-picked favorites. See below for scoring details.

The strict entry deadline is the official start time of the stage. There's no disadvantage to getting your entry in early, since you may always change your picks before the deadline. Feel free to revise your picks when you see which riders are more or less popular with other players. Post changes in a reply to your original post.

Scoring

The top 10 finishers score points according to this basic scale from race winner down to 10th place:

100-60-50-40-30-25-20-15-10-5

However, if riders of all abilities scored the same, we'd all just be picking the big favorites all the time. So we multiply the scale above by a rider's payoff percentage based on the number of players that pick him. More picks, lower payoff. The highest possible payoff for a really unlikely outsider picked by less than 5% of players is 100% of the scale above; the lowest possible payoff for a hot favorite picked by more than 80% of players is 15% of the the scale above.

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For example, here's the result from Stage 1:

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If you're not familiar with this kind of scoring scheme from previous games, just play along for a few stages and it will soon make sense. All you need to do is pick 4 riders that you like for the stage - maybe go for two obvious favorites and try two outsiders that you fancy for a decent top-10 result.

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