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GIRO STAGE PREDICTOR GAME: Stage 18

It's Giro time, and the Stage Predictor Game is back. Everyone is welcome to play. Feel free to join with us at any time and compete for stage wins, but most important will be the hotly-contested overall competition. Since last year's winner got a pink Giro cap signed by Sergey Lagutin, we'll continue the tradition and call the overall competition the cappello rosa. Courtesy of the ever-generous holmovka, there are again some fabulous prizes and trophies:

Giro13001_zps1017e9aa_medium

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Results Stage 17

A perfect parcours for Visconti, but not a popular pick, perhaps because two stage wins in one race from a breakaway rider is unusual. The second unique pick winner of this Giro, plus points from Pozzato's fourth place, although I didn't manage to top broerie's high score from Stage 11.

Stage 17 top 10:

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Remarkably, Evans squeezed into 10th place to maintain Seahorse's perfect record of scoring in every stage. However, several of the closest chasers in the overall outscored her significantly to close the gap. blitzer maloney, rmeloa and Benzene are all within striking distance with one good result, and at least the top 10 are still in contention for the overall win with some luck.

Ironically, the loss of the two big stages in the Dolomites may make the next few days more nerve-racking in the Predictor Game for cappello rosa Seahorse. The high placings in major mountaintop finishes would probably have been competed by a limited selection of elite GC riders, but the modified stages may be less predictable.

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Spreadsheet download with complete results

pdf of complete results for last 3 stages

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Stage 18

Thursday 23rd May

Mori - Polsa 20.6km ITT

Deadline = first rider start time [update:] 13.12 CET

Roadbook
Time trial almost entirely uphill. Stage start at the Velodromo in Mori, with a half-circuit of the warm-up track before exiting towards the town centre. The climb starts 19 km from the finish line. It can be divided into three parts: first, as far as the Brento, constantly climbing at about 6% (wide road with excellent surface), short and shallow descent to the town centre (split time point). After the descent, a section of false flat for about 3 km before the final 7 km of contant climbing at 7-8%.

Stage profile

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Useful links

Gazetta Giro home page

Download "Garibaldi" official roadbook (huge file 92Mb)

Steephill Giro page

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Rules

Pick 4 riders for the stage, the order of your picks doesn't matter. All your riders can score.

Riders score points down to 10th place. Less popular riders score more points than heavily-picked favorites. See below for scoring details.

The strict entry deadline is the official start time of the stage. There's no disadvantage to getting your entry in early, since you may always change your picks before the deadline. Feel free to revise your picks when you see which riders are more or less popular with other players. Post changes in a reply to your original post.

Scoring

The top 10 finishers score points according to this basic scale from race winner down to 10th place:

100-60-50-40-30-25-20-15-10-5

However, if riders of all abilities scored the same, we'd all just be picking the big favorites all the time. So we multiply the scale above by a rider's payoff percentage based on the number of players that pick him. More picks, lower payoff. The highest possible payoff for a really unlikely outsider picked by less than 5% of players is 100% of the scale above; the lowest possible payoff for a hot favorite picked by more than 80% of players is 15% of the the scale above.

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For example, here's the result from Stage 1:

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If you're not familiar with this kind of scoring scheme from previous games, just play along for a few stages and it will soon make sense. All you need to do is pick 4 riders that you like for the stage - maybe go for two obvious favorites and try two outsiders that you fancy for a decent top-10 result.

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