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GIRO STAGE PREDICTOR GAME: Stage 21

It's Giro time, and the Stage Predictor Game is back. Everyone is welcome to play. Feel free to join with us at any time and compete for stage wins, but most important will be the hotly-contested overall competition. Since last year's winner got a pink Giro cap signed by Sergey Lagutin, we'll continue the tradition and call the overall competition the cappello rosa. Courtesy of the ever-generous holmovka, there are again some fabulous prizes and trophies:

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Results Stage 20

A magisterial performance from Nibali. The biggest points for the game came from Duarte, the first of the chasing Colombian trio. trampie and myself shared the stage win, with the points from my pick of Nibali exactly matched by trampie's pick of Pellizotti.

Stage 10 top 10:
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A rare off day for Seahorse, and this is going down to the wire. She is still strong favorite, but both rmeloa and blitzer maloney have pulled to within 40 points. This is a big ask on a sprint stage, but certainly not impossible: even though Cav will be a massive favorite, there are so few sprinters left that there are bound to be some surprises in the top 10.

Overall top 30:
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Spreadsheet download with complete results

pdf of complete results for last 3 stages

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Stage 21

Sunday 26th May

Riese Pio X - Brescia 197km

Published start time 11:40 CET

Roadbook
Completely flat stage across the plains to the final circuit, to be ridden 7 times.

Stage profile

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Final kilometres

Roadbook
Final 4.2 km circuit with no real difficulties, to be ridden 7 times. The circuit unfolds along the city’s avenues and in part in the old town with a number of demanding turns and slgihtly narrower sections. Finish line after a 500 m straight. Road width 8 m, surfaced in asphalt.

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Useful links

Gazetta Giro home page

Download "Garibaldi" official roadbook (huge file 92Mb)

Steephill Giro page

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Rules

Pick 4 riders for the stage, the order of your picks doesn't matter. All your riders can score.

Riders score points down to 10th place. Less popular riders score more points than heavily-picked favorites. See below for scoring details.

The strict entry deadline is the official start time of the stage. There's no disadvantage to getting your entry in early, since you may always change your picks before the deadline. Feel free to revise your picks when you see which riders are more or less popular with other players. Post changes in a reply to your original post.

Scoring

The top 10 finishers score points according to this basic scale from race winner down to 10th place:

100-60-50-40-30-25-20-15-10-5

However, if riders of all abilities scored the same, we'd all just be picking the big favorites all the time. So we multiply the scale above by a rider's payoff percentage based on the number of players that pick him. More picks, lower payoff. The highest possible payoff for a really unlikely outsider picked by less than 5% of players is 100% of the scale above; the lowest possible payoff for a hot favorite picked by more than 80% of players is 15% of the the scale above.

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For example, here's the result from Stage 1:

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If you're not familiar with this kind of scoring scheme from previous games, just play along for a few stages and it will soon make sense. All you need to do is pick 4 riders that you like for the stage - maybe go for two obvious favorites and try two outsiders that you fancy for a decent top-10 result.

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