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TdF STAGE PREDICTOR GAME: Stage 5

Everyone is welcome to play. Feel free to join in at any time and compete for stage wins, and for regular players the individual stage scores will accumulate for the hotly-contested overall competition, the casquette jaune.

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Prize & Trophies

We have a most excellent grand prize for the overall winner: a complete FSA cycling kit, including socks! Size is European Large, probably like a US Medium. If somebody petite or XL wins maybe some horse trading can be arranged. And thanks once again to holmovka for these awesome plaques and the non-virtual casquette jaune.

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Stage 4 Results

The biggest points today came from Orica of course, but Lotto also scored well, delivering the best outsider performance in 5th. The only player with both of these was our solo stage winner Le Blaireau. Honorable mention to Aquatarkus as the only player to pick the top 4 finishers, and bad luck not to win the stage as those 4 were not all just the top favorites.

Stage 4 top 10:

St4_top_10_medium

We have a new leader in the overall. vino2001 takes over the casquette jaune, thanks to a consistent performance scoring with 11 out of 16 picks in the 4 stages so far.

Overall top 30:

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Excel spreadsheet download with complete results of all stages

Pdf download with complete results of recent stages

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Stage 5

Wednesday 3rd July

Published start time 11:45 CET

Cagnes-Sur-Mer - Marseille 228.5km

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Stage profile

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Cat 3 - Côte de Châteauneuf-Grasse
1.4km @8.4%
GPM 206km to go

Cat 4 - Col de l'Ange
1.6km @4.1%
GPM 135km to go

Cat 4 - Côte de la Roquebrussanne
3.5km @ 4.2%
GPM 74km to go

Cat 4 - Côte des Bastides
5.7km @ 3.1%
GPM 30km to go

Uncategorized - Col de la Gineste
GPM 12km to go

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from climbbybike.com

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Final kilometers

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St5_arrival_medium

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Useful links

TdF official site

Steephill TdF Live Dashboard

Cycling Fever startlist

Complete TdF Roadbook *HUGE* 135Mb zipped pdf

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Rules

In this game, only the stage results matter. You're not committed to keeping the same riders throughout the race, you make fresh picks before every stage. Our overall competition is just the sum of individual stage scores. You're eligible for the overall even if you miss some stages.

Pick 4 riders for the upcoming stage. The order of your picks doesn't matter. All of your riders can score.

Riders score points down to 10th place. Less popular riders score more points than heavily-picked favorites. See below for scoring details.

The strict entry deadline is the official start time of the stage, the neutralized rollout or Départ Fictif. Be warned - if your post is timestamped one minute late your entry won't count! So do remember that there's no disadvantage to getting an entry in early, even the day before, because you may always change your picks up until the deadline. Feel free to rethink your picks when it emerges which riders are more or less popular with other players. If you make changes, post your revised 4 picks in a reply to your original post.

Scoring

The top 10 finishers score points according to this basic scale from stage winner down to 10th place:

100-60-50-40-30-25-20-15-10-5

However, if riders of all abilities scored the same, we'd all just be picking the big favorites all the time. So we multiply the scale above by a rider's payoff percentage according to the number of players that pick him. More popular means lower payoff. The highest possible payoff for a really unlikely outsider (picked by less than 5% of our players) is 100% of the scale above; the lowest possible payoff for a hot favorite (picked by more than 80% of our players) is 15% of the the scale above.

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For example, here's the result from the first stage of the Giro:

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If you're not familiar with this kind of scoring scheme from previous games, just play along for a few stages and it will soon make sense. All you need to do is pick 4 riders that you like for the stage - maybe go for two big favorites along with two less obvious riders that you fancy for a mid-top-10 placing.

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