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TdF STAGE PREDICTOR GAME: Stage 21

Everyone is welcome to play. Feel free to join in at any time and compete for stage wins, and for regular players the individual stage scores will accumulate for the hotly-contested overall competition, the casquette jaune.

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Prize & Trophies

We have a most excellent grand prize for the overall winner: a complete FSA cycling kit, including socks! Size is European Large, probably like a US Medium. If somebody petite or XL wins maybe some horse trading can be arranged. And thanks once again to holmovka for these awesome plaques and the non-virtual casquette jaune.

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Stage 20 Results

wannabe_scattista picked the right combination of bigs to win a tight stage, with Tall Chris and Packerbacker96 completing a podium that was separated by less then 2 points.

After trampie's valiant efforts yesterday, a fairly predictable result today means that vino2001 is now looking safe for the overall victory, barring a huge surprise on the Champs. The tightest battle is for third place, with at least holmovka, andrewp and byantium in the running.

Stage 20 top 10:

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Overall top 30:

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Excel spreadsheet download with complete results of all stages

Pdf download with complete results of recent stages

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Stage 21

Sunday 21st July

Published start time 17:45 CET

Versailles - Paris Champs-Élysées 133km

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Useful links

TdF official site

Steephill TdF Live Dashboard

Cycling Fever startlist

Complete TdF Roadbook *HUGE* 135Mb zipped pdf

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Rules

In this game, only the stage results matter. You're not committed to keeping the same riders throughout the race, you make fresh picks before every stage. Our overall competition is just the sum of individual stage scores. You're eligible for the overall even if you miss some stages.

Pick 4 riders for the upcoming stage. The order of your picks doesn't matter. All of your riders can score.

Riders score points down to 10th place. Less popular riders score more points than heavily-picked favorites. See below for scoring details.

The strict entry deadline is the official start time of the stage, the neutralized rollout or Départ Fictif. Be warned - if your post is timestamped one minute late your entry won't count! So do remember that there's no disadvantage to getting an entry in early, even the day before, because you may always change your picks up until the deadline. Feel free to rethink your picks when it emerges which riders are more or less popular with other players. If you make changes, post your revised 4 picks in a reply to your original post.

Scoring

The top 10 finishers score points according to this basic scale from stage winner down to 10th place:

100-60-50-40-30-25-20-15-10-5

However, if riders of all abilities scored the same, we'd all just be picking the big favorites all the time. So we multiply the scale above by a rider's payoff percentage according to the number of players that pick him. More popular means lower payoff. The highest possible payoff for a really unlikely outsider (picked by less than 5% of our players) is 100% of the scale above; the lowest possible payoff for a hot favorite (picked by more than 80% of our players) is 15% of the the scale above.

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For example, here's the result from the first stage of the Giro:

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If you're not familiar with this kind of scoring scheme from previous games, just play along for a few stages and it will soon make sense. All you need to do is pick 4 riders that you like for the stage - maybe go for two big favorites along with two less obvious riders that you fancy for a mid-top-10 placing.

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