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FSA DS for Dummies:Post Mortem, Dissecting the Past to Predict the Future Part II

Continuing on down the line of riders in the Double Restricted group last year.

Without further ado.

32 Points

Vincenzo Nibali: C

I know it doesn't feel like world domination, but he almost hit 60 p/p. He didn't blow the world away, but he did win the Tour. What is coming next year? Who knows? GT riders in the Double Restricteds usually only pay off with multiple GT's or Prep race domination. Vincenzo didn't do these things.

Oh well, he won the Tour. He got almost 60 p/p, he will be once again double restricted. He will be 26-30 points, he will be unable to repeat the feat of winning the Tour. He may or may not hit 1800 to 2000 points.

I give the Shark a Sell there are highly likely to be better options in double restricted land.

Fabian Cancellara: C-

If you bought Fabs last year it wasn't cause you thought he was going to outperform a guy like Sagan. Fabs on your team won you a cobbled monument and got you podiums in MSR and P-R. You got to watch him in the spring be Fabulous. As he ages he gets less in the other areas of the year.

Next year Fabs should be restricted at 22 points. He is not showing worth a 24-26 point spot. He will likely still be Double Restricted next year and I therefore put him at a Sell. I know that no one likely to buy him will flinch at paying for him so Cobbled lovers Buy away.

Mark Cavendish: F

Mark is not what he used to be. Some more competition by the likes of Kittel seems to have crippled him. He is not the win machine he once was. He had what 11 stage wins in SSR's. Sounds like the kind of criticism he used to level on Greipel. I know he was injured at the Tour but that only netted him down about 150 points as he had a better post Tour by a bit. We're looking at a Double restricted who in a best case would have got a 1000 points. I know there is a point premium on popular riders, but the Cav premium seems to be the most excessive.

Making Mark double restricted meant that only 19 people picked one of the most popular riders in the peleton. I know we don't want every team to look the same but I mean, a fantasy cycling game where less than 2 percent of the team owners have Cav?

Mark will still likely be Double restricted next year. For a guy who's top end now seems around 1200 points , which is a stretch, he is a Sell. He wasn't worth 32 last year and won't be worth whatever you have to pay for him at Double Restricted or even Restricted. If Mark tumbles down to 14-16 points he is a Buy.

Nairo Quintana: C

Won the Giro. Had a slightly better year than last year and could have been 1000 points better if had a great Vuelta. He was fantastic in the races he raced, looks like the king in waiting. He is Awesomeness personified. He will be super pricy next year.

I would not be surprised to see Nairo in the 34-36 range. At this range he will need Double GT wins and some prep race wins to be worth it. If you are a Nairo Fan, he will be a Hold. If you are not linked in love to Kingtana, he is a Sell. I don't see him doing the Vuelta in competition with Valverde, after being the numero uno at the Tour.