What has dominated my thoughts for two days? has it only been two days? It is the opening moves of the most important and fun part of the FSA DS Season. Team picking time. As I sit here thinking a Few things have risen to the top of my fevered brain. These fevered thoughts need a bit of catharsis. I have pulled up a PdC couch (not the fainting one, I believe holms still has it occupied) and am ready to relieve myself on the PdC audience.
Fevered Thought 1
Damiano Cunego will be the most selected rider of 2014. It will not even be close. I will bet almost %70 of teams will have him. He is 2 points, many people need at least 6-8 2 pointers. Even those who do research will have a hard time finding a guy with 2 thousand point seasons in the last 4 who cost 2 points. Many, maybe even half of teams will get him on name recognition alone. Scrolling through a list of nobody's most DS's will see his name and pop on him because they recognise the name. Add in those who will think that for 2 points he is worth the punt (me) and the list of those with him will be very long indeed.
Fevered Thought 2
Why does Ursula hate me? I mean Clenbutador is 16 points? Really??? I was predicting 24 points for him even after the collapse of last year. At 24 the choice to not include him would have been easy. Now! How can I not pick him? As much as I despise him for so many reasons(Clenbuterol, Pistolero Salute, P&P fawning over him post Lance, Michael Rasmussen, etc), he is totally fantastic. Realistic shot at Tour podium, realistic shot at Vuelta win, If he is back to his old ways(but hopefully not his old ways) may score points in many week long stage races. At 16 he could still go back to being a 2000+ point rider. Of course he could totally be on the downward slide that never ends, and get 500 or less this year. Or he might just have to take another "Vacation". Ahhh the risks and rewards of FSA DS!
Fevered Thought 3
Wow the Americans went on sale this year! The only thing that might keep Contador off a lot of teams is the presence of Talansky and Vangarderen at the same price point. I think that the most common combo will be 2 out of three with Talansky, Vangarderen, and Phinney or perhaps all three! These guys all three of them have a serious shot at 1000+ points. Many a Jingoist American will have a hard time talking themselves out of picking up one or two or three of these guys!
Not so Fevered Thought 4
Even though Ursula is Evil and "The Pricing" is totally awful and corrupt and we must spend the whole month of February whinging about how awful the whole thing is. I must say wow this is a totally bang up job. There is value to be found, but not necessarily cheap. Phil Gil @ 20, a risk, but perhaps a good one. He is not cheap but he is really good, just forget the last two years. Contador @ 16. Sagan @ 40.
What Sagan is a Value @ 40?
Does Anyone doubt that barring crashes he could be better than last year? He still has room to improve and is adding a new monument to his schedule. Anyone think that Sagan is definitely not suited for PR and will suck? Anyone? Anyone? Anyone?......Bueller?
He could win all the races he didn't this year(not a long list). As we all know VDS points are not about winning and we love guys who finish 2nd and lavish points on them. The big question is this will he repeat. He is so cheap that you can't even add two other guys points from last year together @ 40 points to get Sagans total. So they have to improve (most of them a lot) just to be as good as Sagan was this year. Can Sagan keep on winning everything and being super competitive in everything, never crash and never get ill timed mechanicals? If he can he will be worth every penny or point. Just remember the last guy to be this good of a value was Phil Gil @ 28 in 2011, 28 points for a guy who scored 3986 the year before how can you go wrong. Oh and FSA DS for Dummies recommended you go out and buy two. So take this as the ramblings of a Fevered mind.
Now that I have convinced myself, its off to the drawing board to make a Sagnator based team that has 3 wunderkind americans, a Clenbuterol busted old timer, and a little prince past his prime.
Do I wonder how I Screw up FSA DS every year?
No I do not!