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The Oscar Pereiro Barometer

Flipping through the Men's Journal article from yesterday at lunch... it's nice to see that a magazine which barely lifts a finger to cover Cycling still manages to not look dumb when they drop by the Tour de France. Their rider to watch is Alejandro Valverde... "Beware the Green Bullet." Of course, they pulled this off by hiring VeloNews' European correspondent Andy Hood, and the headline editor implied that Levi Leipheimer doesn't have a chance, even though he might be the best time triallist among the favorites in a Tour that (as I have pointed out hourly today) will favor time triallists. But no matter.

This was the second reminder (after a frivolous NYT piece) that the Tour is coming, and all the part-time Cycling fans and media are slowly coming out of the woodwork. Now, before going too far, let me say I fully appreciate the role of part-time Cycling fan, in America anyway. Obviously I stand with the people whose attraction to the sport justifies a full-time investment, but I recognize its limitations. Some large percentage of Americans -- 90? 95? -- surely must consider it unthinkable to follow a sport that occurs mostly overseas, and which can be viewed primarily on line, for $30, and only after a few tries. And it's not like the American Cycling establishment has done much to change those Tour-only viewing habits. In the sport's history, Americans have won the Tour de France 11 times, including (for now) the last eight... and the Giro once, no Vueltas, no Paris-Roubaixs, no Tours of Flanders, one asterisked Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and three World road races.

Despite all the barriers to entry, Cycling draws out a large crowd from the US and other marginal Cycling nations for the Tour de France. Quite simply, the Tour radiates a historical, cultural and athletic significance that catches the eye of recreational cyclists, casual sports fans, wandering vacationers in-country, and everyone who thinks endurace suffering is cool. However great the Giro or De Ronde may be, and don't get me started there, the fact is that only the Tour occupies a place in the world's collective sports consciousness alongside the Super Bowl, Wimbledon, the World Cup, Olympic figure skating, Acapulco Cliff Diving, etc. So millions of people outside the hardcore tifosi make their annual foray into Cycling, celebrate the athletes for three weeks, maybe even get meaningfully acquainted with the sport, and move on. Fine by me... we have no use at the Podium Cafe for double standards.

But there's no pass for the media, and this is where Oscar Pereiro comes in. Any major magazine/TV show/website/etc. that does its annual drive-by coverage of the Tour owes its audience at least a modicum of intelligent coverage, by which I mean you need to spend at least 10 minutes on Pez or VN or CN and figure out who the real riders to watch are. During the Lance years, it was hard to tell who actually lifted a finger to cover the Tour, but now, thanks to last year's unusual results, we can tell: any medium that lists Oscar Pereiro as among the top three favorites must be shunned.

As we all know, Oscarita happened upon his Tour leadership in a gift breakaway, gaining back lost time and putting him back into the race, where he woke up and defended his position well. If Landis is expunged from the books, I will openly call him the winner [my disgust with him last summer had more to do with his convenient ability to forget how he erased his 25 minute deficit]. Pereiro is a competent rider and a consensus B-list contender... but to the lazy reporter, he's the answer to the trick question: who's the favorite this year, based solely on last year's results?

Regardless of how you viewed his 2006 Tour, IMHO it's undisputed that this year he's working for Valverde, not himself. Even if Valverde got hurt again or kicked out, I'd still wait til after the Albi time trial before annointing him the team leader over Vlad Karpets, Luis León Sánchez, or some other rider plucked off of Caisse d'Epargne's deep, deep bench.

So that's the Pereiro barometer. Any medium (e.g., NY Times) that puts his name between Vinokourov and Valverde should be ignored or scorned. Any medium that shows they know better, accepted. Nice work, Men's Journal.

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DemonCats Predictions
You can see my predictions at lesdemoncats.blogspot.com
  1. Vinokourov
  2. Leipheimer
  3. Valverde if he can stay upright
Pereiro? 30 minutes down!

Nuff Said! Aight?

Racing for Victory and Free Beer!

by DemonCats on Jun 12, 2007 5:22 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow
You've got couriers doing a team time trial? Interesting. I'd love to see them blitzing traffic in formation on Pennsylvania Ave some afternoon!
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jun 12, 2007 5:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

le tour de simpson
Tt's a 40th anniversary of Tommy Simpson's death and my birthday too! I think that is where I get my penchant for drugs, hard climbs and alcohol! Last year was the Tour de LeMond, 20th anniversary of LeMond winning the TdF!!!

Check it out. tourdeledistrict.blogspot.com

Sign up a team!!!

23 mile individual course plus the TTT up Rock Creek Park

Racing for Victory and Free Beer!

by DemonCats on Jun 12, 2007 5:32 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If only
I hadn't moved away three years ago... then I'd totally be there. Sounds really, really fun tho'.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jun 12, 2007 5:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Excellent piece
We are now well equipped with a litmus test to determine whether a TdF preview is serious journalism or not.

Still, depending on who is allowed to start, my big question is whether or not Astana can sweep the podium. Valv. is certainly the other favorite, but after watching Astana favorites 1 & 3 eat his lunch in the Vuelta, can anyone (on a bike anyway) halt the Kazakh grand armada?

Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Jun 12, 2007 5:36 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Teams
Ruthann said it elsewhere... handicapping this race starts with the teams. There are 4-5 really loaded outfits.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jun 12, 2007 5:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it's interesting
How little America is doing for my two favorite sports (football/soccer and cycling). I read Deadspin on a pretty regular basis, and they only cover cycling when something bad happens (they cover football/soccer a bit more because it has a bigger fanbase on the blog). I think that cycling's doping image isn't helping with the poor coverage -- in fact it's probably hurting it.
Come on you Gunners.

by callmecayce on Jun 12, 2007 6:23 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

New thought:
Could this same principle to previews last year that touted Hincapie as a potential winner?

On the one hand I like the idea, on the other I understand and value home-team optimism while I'm not that tolerant of stupidity and laziness. (Side note: just how many of my life's worries are caused by stupidity and laziness?)

Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Jun 12, 2007 7:07 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Probably
though it would be a perfect analogy if Hincapie himself had gone around telling people he wasn't planning to win.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris... on Jun 12, 2007 7:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the difference between GC men and support riders
is huge--Hincapie is a good example. Good in the support role, but he can't climb day in, day out.

My impression is that Oscar isn't as consistent as Karpets in the support rider role. And Oscar is definitely not a GC man, as we will soon find out (presuming he gets a ride).

Will Oscar beat:

Voeckler?
Mayo???

-K-

by KevinK on Jun 12, 2007 11:23 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hincapie--I hope someone builds a classics team
around him. There has to be some rich cycling fan out there a la Pavel Brut that would do that.
-K-

by KevinK on Jun 12, 2007 11:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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