Levi finally has the form, experience, and the team to win a TDF. This is the first year I have seen Levi race and actually have teamates around him. Valverde has never finished a Tour, Vino and his team will blow up from attacking each other, Rodgers!?, Menchov is a stage winner at best, Sastre could never handle the media, Cadel Evans only does well enough to have his name mentioned for the next year and certainly does'nt have a team to support him. A Tour team can only support one star and that's McEwen. It is an extremely open Tour but barring injury Levi is my pick with George winning another stage somewhere along the way.  

I've come to appreciate the Khazakh school of racing; they actually race. It must be a nightmare to compete against them, especially in a three week race. Ugh. Can you imagine attempting to cover all the breaks? Ouch.

I think, if there is in-fighting between Klodi and Vino it might be for the top podium spot in the final TT. Everything I've seen Vino do leads me to think he'd be disappointed if Klodi beat him, but I don't think he'd constrain Klodi from winning.

...when you wrote:

> But there's more to it than that: none of the favorites come without asterisks.

The first thing I thought was..."really? All of the favorites have possibly been linked to a doping scandal?

I feel like Levi has to be the conventional wisdom favorite right now. The only thing is that he seems to always find a way to lose. If I were a betting man, I think I would take the odds on Vino's year-long rage getting uncorked for three-weeks of Kazakh whoop-ass.

I hear that Astana has hired a platoon of Borat impersonators, who will all take turns goading Vino up big climbs. He can't lose.

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/tour-de-france/win-market

Vino is the heavy favorite among the gambling world.

Valv.Piti is next.

Klodi is third.

The odds climb drastically as we get to Cadel, Carlos, Levi, and Menchov.

Meteors, floods, and animal attacks seem required for the next batch of contenders.

Valv.Piti, if he even gets a chance to start, has a bad run of luck in the Tour, and will have huge T-Mobilesque issues with his amazingly strong team. He also had the issue of faltering in the 3rd week, which doesn't speak well to his favorability

Vino never does well on the first mountain stage, and if the teams are smart this year, as they should be, he won't be able to get away (the stage to Briancon is the only possiblity I see, but quite frankly, I don't see Il Falco making it far enough to use his crazy descending skills.

Sastre and Schleck are an interesting combination because they have one of the more underrated teams, but still an amazing one: Cancellara and Dave Z can hammer the TTs; Julich, Dave Z, Jens, and probably some others are solid support riders, and Stuey can hammer it on the flats (and, as we saw in Zuri-Metzgete, is still able to hold his own in some smaller climbs, which is a bonus) and even an outside Green jersey possibility. I think that CSC has by far the best all-around team, and some of the best support. They have the ability to win countless stages with many riders, and have one of the most consistent climbers (Sastre), and a good support rider who can hold his own with the best on some stages (Schleck). Both have the Achilles Heel of the TTs, which could seriously favor Dave Z

Menchov? If he can do it without huge team support (although, TDekker, ~:>, and the tooth monster aren't bad, plus Flecha's pretty strong as well) in the early stages, and without ~:>'s help on the big mountain stages, I can see him having a shot. Sadly, I don't think he's really good enough in the mountains on a consistent basis (last year's Tour was kind of a disaster in the Alps)

Levi is another interesting possibility. I think he's got his preparation right this year, for one (except for the weak Dauphine, and perhaps a painful crash), and has the team to help him out. Devolder, Gusev, and Hincapie are strong climbers for support (and not too shabby on their own), and Contador and Popovych are both some decent GC contenders who will work for him completely (until he cracks, then... who knows)

Cadel and Moreau were both showing good form, but in Cadel's case, I'm concerned about lack of a strong team (Horner isn't much, really), and for Moreau I think he peaked too early, or may be gunning for the KOM jersey rather than a real GC spot. If he's got his Dauphine form though, I would not count him out.

Jose Angel Gomez Marchante of Saunier or Zubeldia, Sanchez, or Anton of Euskaltel could surprise , as they are all good climbers, but only Gomez or Sanchez can really time trial well enough for have a shot. Mayo could pull something, but I think he's going for the KOM jersey.

The sprints all depend on who can climber over the mountains without dying. Boonen has never made it, which is bad for him. Robbie also has a bad run of luck in the mountains, and Petacchi is gonna have some trouble, too. Zabel, O'Grady, and Thor are my guesses to win it, and I'd put my money on Thor to win it.

KOM? ~:> is my favorite because of his domination last year. David de la Fuente, if he's racing, could put up a fight, but I think Moreau and Mayo will be his big competitors for it.

White jersey:
This could be an interesting one, I think. I'll have to look at some of the (possible) startlists, but here's my thoughts: Thomas Dekker, Bernhard Kohl and Marcus Fothen, Remy Di Gregorio would be my best bets. Dekker's the best Time Trialist, and none of those guys can stay up with the best anyway (except maybe Kohl), so I'd place my bets on Thomas Dekker for it.