Le Tour '07: Stage 5 Live!
Well now... there are a number of theories as to how this stage shapes up. The course features eight climbs, half in the cat-4 category, three cat-3s and a cat-2. By Koppenberg's point system Update [2007-7-12 10:15:35 by chris]: which may be wrong, there are some 70 KOM points at issue today. So the going theory this week has been that either Michael Rasmussen (~:>) or one of his challengers will come out flying early on. We could even see a real mano-a-mano battle for the maillot pois, which would be a refreshing change.
HIstory is a little mixed on this point. Last year there were no truly comparable stages, but the closest early KOM points bonanza was a stage in which Jerome Pineau took off and got hold of the jersey. He wound up 30th in the final KOM points and was nowhere to be seen when Rasmussen went on his annual romp. However, two years ago the Tour came by this region of France late in the first week, and then the results were more telling. On stage 8 along the western border of Germany into Alsace France (sic?), Rasmussen emerged to win three cat-3 climbs and take third on the finishing cat-2 hill. The next day, clad in polka dots, Rasmussen left early and stayed away all day, winning a truly beautiful stage over some of the Tour's historic early climbs. The KOM points were huge: four cat-3s, a cat-2 and a cat-1.
So by this guide, it's not inconceivable that today's cache of KOM points could tempt ~:> out of his shell. Or one of his rivals. Or both. There are bigger points days ahead on the major climbs of the Tour, but for spotty jersey hunters, there are no better days to get away without the GC guys following.
A second theory, the one the Tour wants you to believe, is that today's stage will be a battle of the Classics champions. The 8 categorized climbs will presumably remind them of April in Belgium, or October in Milan? Anyway, the thought of a leading peloton including O'Grady, Cancellara, Boonen, Ballan, Hincapie, Nuyens, and so forth is indeed delicious, but the Tour doesn't ever really work that way. So file this away in "flights of fancy."
A third possibility will be a relatively anonymous breakaway that's left to stay away. My hunch is the KOM fight will begin, but the bland door #3 is runner-up. One thing I really don't expect is a bunch sprint. Have fun, I plan to join early.
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275 comments
Comments
Three On The Attack
by lucybears on
Jul 12, 2007 7:35 AM EDT
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Current situation
Giampaolo Cheula (Barloworld) at 0.20
Peloton at 1.00
by lucybears on
Jul 12, 2007 7:39 AM EDT
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Looks like Di Gregario is out
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed. -Eleanor Roosevelt
by ELVISGOAT on
Jul 12, 2007 8:20 AM EDT
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Yep, Sherwen
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 8:53 AM EDT
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that's because
by Sui Juris on
Jul 12, 2007 9:00 AM EDT
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Gap 10:17 now, 113.5k to go/
by Ruthann on
Jul 12, 2007 8:53 AM EDT
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Gap 8:23, 102.1k to go/83.4mi
by Ruthann on
Jul 12, 2007 9:07 AM EDT
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Iban Mayo falls
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 9:21 AM EDT
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yes, that's a
-- but, the tell is in the way the riders have protected their leader.
by orangekick on
Jul 12, 2007 9:36 AM EDT
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There's a mixture of teams chasing
Beautiful, wooded countryside, and the weather looks fantastic, plenty of sunshine.
by Ruthann on
Jul 12, 2007 9:25 AM EDT
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37.2kph avg so far, Gap down to
by Ruthann on
Jul 12, 2007 9:35 AM EDT
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Cote de St Maurice...
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 9:38 AM EDT
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So
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 9:41 AM EDT
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Kloden looked hurt, but he's back on his bike.
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 9:52 AM EDT
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Astana is not helping him get back
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 9:53 AM EDT
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Great Astana have no one back for him
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed. -Eleanor Roosevelt
by ELVISGOAT on
Jul 12, 2007 9:53 AM EDT
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The cracks begin to appear... I love the TdF!
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed. -Eleanor Roosevelt
by ELVISGOAT on
Jul 12, 2007 9:54 AM EDT
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re Kloden crash
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 9:55 AM EDT
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paulo is now helping
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 9:55 AM EDT
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did Astana #199
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed. -Eleanor Roosevelt
by ELVISGOAT on
Jul 12, 2007 9:56 AM EDT
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I think this German TV stream
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 9:57 AM EDT
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nonetheless
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 10:00 AM EDT
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Race director looking at Klodi like...
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed. -Eleanor Roosevelt
by ELVISGOAT on
Jul 12, 2007 9:57 AM EDT
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Back in the cars... excitement over
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed. -Eleanor Roosevelt
by ELVISGOAT on
Jul 12, 2007 9:57 AM EDT
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So
d'oh!
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 9:59 AM EDT
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Klodi to Porte
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed. -Eleanor Roosevelt
by ELVISGOAT on
Jul 12, 2007 9:59 AM EDT
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time for a free ride
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 9:59 AM EDT
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10km to the summit
Did anyone else feel briefly concerned by the trivia question which began with "Jonathan Boyer was the first American to ride the Tour"? For a moment I thought it would be a "where are they now" segment.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 10:19 AM EDT
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Different day
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 10:20 AM EDT
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Were you
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 10:28 AM EDT
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How many aircraft engineers
by bethie on
Jul 12, 2007 10:21 AM EDT
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16
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 10:26 AM EDT
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Probably only need 12
by bethie on
Jul 12, 2007 10:28 AM EDT
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If you break it down like that
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 10:28 AM EDT
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good link
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 10:21 AM EDT
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A bit jumpy for me
And waaay better coverage than Vs...
by gavia on
Jul 12, 2007 10:36 AM EDT
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break is down to 3
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 10:24 AM EDT
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break of 4 together
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 10:26 AM EDT
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I like the rant at Cyclingfans.com
by Sui Juris on
Jul 12, 2007 10:31 AM EDT
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yes, i like it too
by mobilegoat on
Jul 12, 2007 10:35 AM EDT
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That would so rock
Likey the rant.
I want my streaming vid <<drums heels on floor>>
by gavia on
Jul 12, 2007 10:37 AM EDT
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It definitely works
by Sui Juris on
Jul 12, 2007 10:43 AM EDT
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Thor
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 10:31 AM EDT
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Pitti and OP at the back
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 10:34 AM EDT
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Gilbert
Valverde and Pereiro dangling off the back! Is Oscar dumping time?
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 10:34 AM EDT
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Valverde sighting
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 10:35 AM EDT
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And he's
1km for the leaders. Is Gilbert challenging Chav? What exactly is in it for him?
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 10:36 AM EDT
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different from the Giro
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 10:37 AM EDT
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GC staredown
There's always guys in the Giro willing to make a one-day race of it. That, and Diluca was riding super aggressively every day in the early stages against the possibility of big moves from the climbers (which never really came.) The Tour seems to impose a degree of conservatism on the tactics.
by gavia on
Jul 12, 2007 10:40 AM EDT
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And
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 10:46 AM EDT
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Good point
by gavia on
Jul 12, 2007 10:56 AM EDT
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Gilbert leading down
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 10:43 AM EDT
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VS. technicians are scrambling
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 10:45 AM EDT
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I recall that, looked bad
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 10:46 AM EDT
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(Pops her head in)
by Ruthann on
Jul 12, 2007 10:45 AM EDT
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Oh nothing
They did the big climb, and Chavanel got all the points. Gilbert is still with him. Maybe 2' or so lead.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 10:47 AM EDT
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One of these days it has to work
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 10:48 AM EDT
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Chavanel takes the sprint points
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 10:50 AM EDT
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Now Ete off the back
by mobilegoat on
Jul 12, 2007 10:51 AM EDT
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Carlos gets a power bottle
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 10:51 AM EDT
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zabel is still there
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 10:52 AM EDT
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milram pacing zabel back
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 10:53 AM EDT
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Wierd, huh
by gavia on
Jul 12, 2007 10:57 AM EDT
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Chavanel and Gilbert Grape
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 10:55 AM EDT
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Chavanel into yellow?
If he won the stage, he'd be awfully close.
When's the last time we saw a French rider in the yellow jersey? Voeckler in 2004, I'm thinking.
by Tifosa on
Jul 12, 2007 10:57 AM EDT
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Confusion
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 10:59 AM EDT
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time bonuses
by Tifosa on
Jul 12, 2007 11:02 AM EDT
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He has to have gotten back at least 8 seconds
by Le Comte on
Jul 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT
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Oops
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 10:57 AM EDT
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Shut up Flanders
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 11:02 AM EDT
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Vino down
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 11:03 AM EDT
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Finale
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:04 AM EDT
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Kloden gets Vino back,
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 11:04 AM EDT
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In some ways
by Le Comte on
Jul 12, 2007 11:09 AM EDT
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Vino Down!
by Chilltown on
Jul 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT
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Motorcycle is broken
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT
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VINO!
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT
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Bad day for the big stars
by Tifosa on
Jul 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT
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6 astanas back
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT
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7-man escort
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:06 AM EDT
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Har! TTT for Vino
by hughw on
Jul 12, 2007 11:06 AM EDT
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That is something, though
by Sui Juris on
Jul 12, 2007 11:06 AM EDT
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Yup
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:09 AM EDT
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In fairness Kloden was a lot farhter
by hughw on
Jul 12, 2007 11:11 AM EDT
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Van Summer Ale!
CSC working the front with Liquigas.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:07 AM EDT
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Is CSC trying to put some distance
by hughw on
Jul 12, 2007 11:08 AM EDT
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Is Thor still smashing the autobus?
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 11:08 AM EDT
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meanwhile, the shadow of a guy
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 11:09 AM EDT
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Cut to Johan
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:11 AM EDT
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angry peloton
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 11:11 AM EDT
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CN
by Hons on
Jul 12, 2007 11:13 AM EDT
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VS-speak
Is this a Monty Python skit? Our two greatest weapons are fear, surprise, ruthlessness - Our three greatest weapons...
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:14 AM EDT
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it wouldn't be a surprise
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 11:15 AM EDT
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I've noticed that, too
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 11:15 AM EDT
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cars were pulled out
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 11:14 AM EDT
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Keep the details coming
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 11:14 AM EDT
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According to Phil
Would we be seeing the same action if it was a French team?
This Post Brought to You By Hennie's Hordes:
We're not one of the other VDS teams
by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:14 AM EDT
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peloton
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:14 AM EDT
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Rast is dropped
Gilbert goes again
whos pulling the peloton?
by mobilegoat on
Jul 12, 2007 11:16 AM EDT
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Catch imminent
Vino 2' down!!! Holy freaking sheit... Will they ride for Kloden after today? Vino could be hurting. Wow, very dramatic, but a crappy thing to wish on any rider, even one I don't root for and didn't pay 22 points for.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:16 AM EDT
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I wonder if
by Sui Juris on
Jul 12, 2007 11:18 AM EDT
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ouch
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 11:17 AM EDT
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Astana
by Tifosa on
Jul 12, 2007 11:18 AM EDT
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wait
by Sui Juris on
Jul 12, 2007 11:19 AM EDT
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apparently not
by Tifosa on
Jul 12, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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Kloden left in peleton...
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by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:19 AM EDT
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Shades of Mayo and
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 11:19 AM EDT
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1:45
Chav has about :35
by gavia on
Jul 12, 2007 11:18 AM EDT
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Vino's gap??
I wonder where Boonen is. If he's hung on to the field, he could get some serious freebie points.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:19 AM EDT
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Wegmann attacks!
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:20 AM EDT
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Predictions??
Bit of a pipe dream...but I'd love to see Schleck take off
by Hons on
Jul 12, 2007 11:20 AM EDT
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How mahy K to go?
by Ruthann on
Jul 12, 2007 11:20 AM EDT
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Gap at 0.14
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:21 AM EDT
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What Does Vino Look Like?
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 11:21 AM EDT
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It looks like a pretty hard hit
by Sui Juris on
Jul 12, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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Ripped shorts,
This Post Brought to You By Hennie's Hordes:
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by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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Rabo on front
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by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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11K to go
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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If Astana loses one minute or less
by socal on
Jul 12, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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Rabo
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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All the Astana , save Maxim, are blown
by mobilegoat on
Jul 12, 2007 11:23 AM EDT
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I guess Kessler
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 11:24 AM EDT
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Freire
Chavanel is now... caught.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:23 AM EDT
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Vino....
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by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:23 AM EDT
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Vino
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:24 AM EDT
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Kolbo counters
Vino blows by Thor
(note to self: SMASH Vino later)
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 11:24 AM EDT
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Damn team car is pacing Vino as Iglinsky blows
by mobilegoat on
Jul 12, 2007 11:24 AM EDT
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adrenaline is cool
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 11:26 AM EDT
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Vino Alone
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by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:24 AM EDT
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Vino update
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:25 AM EDT
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Why risk it with these stupid car tricks?
by Sui Juris on
Jul 12, 2007 11:26 AM EDT
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I"m guessing
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by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:26 AM EDT
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Vino still
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:26 AM EDT
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Ugh
What were they thinking?!
by gavia on
Jul 12, 2007 11:26 AM EDT
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Boonen locks onto Vino
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:27 AM EDT
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Cancellara patrolling
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:28 AM EDT
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Cance is riding great!!
by Clydesdale on
Jul 12, 2007 11:28 AM EDT
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Yaro-pop?
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:29 AM EDT
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green disco pops off the front
by 12string on
Jul 12, 2007 11:29 AM EDT
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Disco Leading
by Clydesdale on
Jul 12, 2007 11:29 AM EDT
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really really cool action!
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:29 AM EDT
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Chasing Group
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by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:30 AM EDT
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Vino 56 seconds back!
by Tifosa on
Jul 12, 2007 11:30 AM EDT
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Hasn't
by Hons on
Jul 12, 2007 11:30 AM EDT
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Yaro-pop?
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:30 AM EDT
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Cance chasing!!
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:31 AM EDT
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All that Rabo work at the front
by socal on
Jul 12, 2007 11:31 AM EDT
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I guess we know who they are
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 11:33 AM EDT
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Cance into the grass!!
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:32 AM EDT
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Holy Crap
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by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:32 AM EDT
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FYI: drafting cars tolerated after crashing
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 11:32 AM EDT
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Who's Lampre working so hard for?
by Tifosa on
Jul 12, 2007 11:33 AM EDT
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Ballan I think
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:34 AM EDT
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Boonen leading
Lampre leading, though I think POpo is still just ahead maybe??
3km to go. Descent is over. All together except for the Vino group.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:33 AM EDT
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Vino 1K behind
This Post Brought to You By Hennie's Hordes:
We're not one of the other VDS teams
by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:34 AM EDT
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Hincapie up there
by ghisallo on
Jul 12, 2007 11:34 AM EDT
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Millar
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:34 AM EDT
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1.5km!!
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:35 AM EDT
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1km
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:35 AM EDT
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Vino going to lose time
This Post Brought to You By Hennie's Hordes:
We're not one of the other VDS teams
by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:35 AM EDT
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Freire around??
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:35 AM EDT
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Is Yaropop still out front?
by Ruthann on
Jul 12, 2007 11:35 AM EDT
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Freire jumps,
Pippo!
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:36 AM EDT
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Confusing sprint...
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We're not one of the other VDS teams
by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:36 AM EDT
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Vino loses...
This Post Brought to You By Hennie's Hordes:
We're not one of the other VDS teams
by TCWriter on
Jul 12, 2007 11:37 AM EDT
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Vino coming in
1.18 down.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:37 AM EDT
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Too bad for Vino this wasn't the Tour of Calif.
;)
by socal on
Jul 12, 2007 11:43 AM EDT
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Top three
Freire
Unibrow
Eisel or Kirchen 4th?
Not sure where Zabel was (5th?), but he could be in Green tonight. Some people (Pete) will be happy @ that, but not me.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:39 AM EDT
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That will put Oscar
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 11:43 AM EDT
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Phil said Napolitano
by Tifosa on
Jul 12, 2007 11:42 AM EDT
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Schumacher in 8th!
by Tifosa on
Jul 12, 2007 11:44 AM EDT
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ONly the VDS
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 2:03 PM EDT
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So everyone who was predicting Vino
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 11:44 AM EDT
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And that's
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:47 AM EDT
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On the other hand, it does bode well
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 11:52 AM EDT
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Absolutely
by Koppenberg on
Jul 12, 2007 12:00 PM EDT
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I thought he'd lose time on Stage 7
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 11:59 AM EDT
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Yeah, I know the predictions
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 12:07 PM EDT
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I was elliptical...
I wasn't able to watch the feed today. I'm surprised he crashed.
by KevinK on
Jul 12, 2007 12:18 PM EDT
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Can't give it away
Vino looks not so bueno in the replays there.
by gavia on
Jul 12, 2007 11:45 AM EDT
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Green jersey
Hopefully Boonen or Thor will crush tomorrow. I really, really don't want Zabel to win the thing after taking out half the field on stage 2. I know, that's cycling, but it was a sucky crash, and Zabel's fault.
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 11:49 AM EDT
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That's a little harsh
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 11:51 AM EDT
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No
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 12:02 PM EDT
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By that logic...
Crashes happen when you put a large number of cyclists on a small road at high speed.
I'd LOVE to hate Wegmann forever for riding Bettini off the road into a fence-post earlier this year, but that's just what happens at high speeds.
Zabel has been riding for years and has earned his reputation as a gentleman who plays fair. I just can't see my way clear to punish him when every other sprinter in the race has done the same at some point in their careers. It is just what happens in the sprint.
The other sprinters take what happened in stride with stoic grace. Otherwise they end up looking like a petty little cry-baby who doesn't know how to handle themselves at a professional level. (Yes, I'm referring to you, Baden Cook!)
by Koppenberg on
Jul 12, 2007 12:15 PM EDT
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Well now, candor or no
That is not at all what happened with Boonen, Zabel and Quniziato et.al.
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed. -Eleanor Roosevelt
by ELVISGOAT on
Jul 12, 2007 1:02 PM EDT
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No denying
Grillo did not put Cooke into the barriers, Cooke chose to ride into a gap that did not exist because Bettini illegally shut the door on him.
Paolo's not innocent, but shutting off a gap by shifting a line happens nearly every single sprint stage. Watch the stage prior to that one, where Di Luca won. You'll see the exact same move happen: Danilo closed the door, then Paolo sat up and took it like a man and a professional.
I don't deny Baden got screwed, I fault him for not taking his screwing like a man. It is sprinting, everyone gets screwed. Did Boonen cause a crash when he was forced off his train yesterday? Stuff happens in sprinting, if it is bad enough, the judges will make a ruling. Otherwise, act like a professional.
I know I make this same argument every GT, and I not going to convince anyone, but after reading how the other sprinters (non-Aussie) responded, they all said the same thing: "Baden needs to grow up and act like a professional, that move happens every single sprint, but only Baden was dumb/desperate enough to cause a crash out of it."
by Koppenberg on
Jul 12, 2007 3:45 PM EDT
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You've convinced me
Now, let's drop the whole topic of man screwing so I don't have visions of American History X running through my head for the rest of the day.
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 4:01 PM EDT
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This is beneath you
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 12:16 PM EDT
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I'm not so down on Zabel
by mobilegoat on
Jul 12, 2007 12:00 PM EDT
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Thank you EGoat
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 12:16 PM EDT
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When you've been
and the number of crashes you caused can be counted on one hand, you more than earn a pass.
by Mr Van P on
Jul 12, 2007 1:20 PM EDT
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Wow
by Chris... on
Jul 12, 2007 2:05 PM EDT
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He's been as consistent or more so
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 2:10 PM EDT
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Screw my VDS,
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 11:55 AM EDT
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(nodding)
For a stage that was supposed to be meh for most of the peleton, it sure turned out to be a barn burner.
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 12:00 PM EDT
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clarification please
by Scott. on
Jul 12, 2007 12:49 PM EDT
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dull, unexciting, not to be worried about, so so
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 1:04 PM EDT
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Geoffroy Lequatre
by Monty. on
Jul 12, 2007 12:26 PM EDT
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Considering he's 50' late
by Drew on
Jul 12, 2007 12:43 PM EDT
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