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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

You Won't See Him No More

A list of those who have disappeared from the Tour, and why:

  • Michael Rogers: While speculation the last 24 hours centered on his wrist and knee, he in fact sustained a dislocated shoulder from his meeting with a Cormet de Roseland guard rail.
  • Stuart O'Grady: He too crashed, and badly: he's up to nine broken ribs now, along with a collapsed lung and a dislocated shoulder.
  • Patrik Sinkewicz: Hit a spectator on his way back down the mountain after the race yesterday, broke his nose, and is not expected to continue.
  • Robbie McEwen, Danilo Napolitano, Cédric Hervé: Hors délai, eliminated despite finishing. McEwen's sore knees and other ailments from stage 1 crash slowed him down too much.
  • Oscar Freire: DNS yesterday, bottom boils making life too miserable.
  • Rubén Lobato, DNS yesterday.
  • Enrico Degano: the first man to start the prologue crashed out yesterday.
  • Ivan Parra, Roman Feillu, Mark Cavendish: stepped off the bike yesterday (crashes, etc.)
  • Tomas Vaitkus: crashed, thumb broken in several places.
  • Geoffrey Lequatre: Crashed, DNS Friday.
  • Rémy Di Grégorio, Bret Lancaster: Crashed, DNF Thursday.
  • Xabier Zandio: DNF Wednesday.
  • Eduardo Gonzalo Ramirez: Hit someone's rear windshield in stage 1, withdrew.

I don't think the number of crashes and withdrawals are anything unusual, but they've been rather dramatic and unpleasant. For most of these guys, leaving the Tour is a miserable fate, after all the preparation and work needed to just secure a spot, or the hopes of success. Even for a guy like McEwen, who falls into the category of rider not always expected to survive the mountains, missing the time cutoff is a bitter pill. As Robbie said, he wasn't stepping off the bike. They were going to have to eliminate him to make him stop. Better luck next time, guys.

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And
for all the talk of Robbie not being able to climb, he's still finished the Tour 9 times. He's just not a fast climber for a sprinter (like Zabel).

I feel bad for Mick Rogers but luckily he's young enough to have more than a couple of shots at the podium. I read that Stuey wrapped himself around a pole, which would account for caving in so many ribs and puncturing a lung. I still remember when he broke his collarbone in 3 places and still rode 80K to finish a stage.

"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 16, 2007 10:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Broken back in last years race
    Stuey raced with a broken vertebra last year.  I'm happy the guy can at least go home and admire the pave on his mantle.  It could have been his year for the worlds though, if the team was going to back him up.  I'm looking forward to his return next season.
The S. Obedient Flying Dog Boy

by flying dog on Jul 16, 2007 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

While there have been
a variety of reports as to what is actually broken, and while this is certainly in 'little knowledge = dangerous thing territory', if you take the worst reported - broken scapula, broken clavicle, 9 broken ribs, I think we have to be concerned that this could be a career ending injury, given his age and the possible level of damage to the shoulder area.
Which would be very sad.

by ianmcw on Jul 16, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sinkewitz
Sinkewitz hit a spectator after yesterday's stage.  He was riding back down the climb to the team hotel.  He broke his nose, and is out of the race.

by Jen See on Jul 16, 2007 11:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Right...
I knew there was another.

The other guy is in a coma?!?! What the hell happened?

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 16, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah...
I haven't seen any updates on the spectator, but yeah, he was in a coma.  A 70-plus fan from Luxembourg who came to see Schlecky ride.  Very sad.

Sinke was probably just tired and not competely paying attention.  Or, the spectator guy stepped out into the road without looking, not expecting the riders to be coming back down the hill.

The OGrady crash, freakin' scary.

by Jen See on Jul 16, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

s
He gives some details on his web page, but sadly all in german. http://patrik-sinkewitz.com/content/view/294/1/

Google translates as:

Patrik goes it to to a collision with a spectator the 8. Stage of the route de France the circumstances accordingly well.
Sinking joke was yesterday afternoon with speed 40 on the way to the hotel, when a Luxemburger fan jumped over the shut-off position.

Erik Zabel cried still, it was however too late. The two hit together and could not be supplied due to chaotic traffic conditions approximately around the goal only once not emergency-medically.

Safe is however: Sinking joke did not carry any debt at the collision - that mean also numerous testimony with the helicopter it in the hospital were then brought. While the spectator continues to be appropriate in coma, Patrik drew itself „only “a brain vibration, moderately severe face injuries, a nose break, scratches and everyone mixed blue marks too. Further investigations resulted in that I the 26-Jährige did not tighten a heavy head injury. The portion around shoulder and neck, drawn strongly in, is again examined. It looks however in such a way, as if there would be also here no break, but only each quantity bruises. The Künzeller could itself reminded at the Monday morning still of running, not however of the accident. Also he got the details only later told.
Its parents experienced from the videotex of the horror accident and still made themselves in the Sunday evening on the way to France. „I am now again to some extent calmed down that not still worse passed “, says its nut/mother Jutta sinking joke.
For Patrik, which can speak and relatively in good spirits is, the route de France naturally ran 2007 thereby, it must be treated still approximately one week in the hospital. Above all the face injuries make for it to still create. Everything looks however like it, as if the 26-Jährige can sit soon the bicycle.

(Sinking Joke is their translation of Sinkewitz)

From which I gather that he was riding back down with Zabel at 40kph, and not looking where he was going when someone jumped over the barrier (a pretty fit 79 yr old). Both were knocked cold and taken by helicopter to hospital, although it took a while what with all the traffic, Sinkewitz in a neck brace. He still doesn't remember the accident.

by Monty. on Jul 16, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

The poor sod he hit
is in a coma to boot. Very sad end to a big day.
"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 16, 2007 11:27 AM EDT reply actions  

Help me understand Astana
I understand this is Vino's team, but if you are not going to send Kloden and Kash back to help bring Vino back after he crashed then you must consider them, at least to some degree, GC options.

Fast forward to Sunday. They send Kash up the road to cover the break containing Valverde. Then they chase that break.

Vino gets left behind and they have Kloden wait for him.

Why not send Kloden in the break? He's more dangerous to the other teams so the other teams would have to chase. Vino would still have Kash to help him if he got into trouble.

by Punctured on Jul 16, 2007 11:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Rasmussen
The Astanas in the main field were chasing to keep the gap to Rasmussen under control, more than they were chasing the Moreau group.  The Moreau move was important enough to send Kash to cover, but not the main issue in the GC battle.  Allowing Ras to run the clock out up the road would have been suicide.  So they had to chase on the main field; there weren't really any other teams left with legs to do it.  

Just about every team had someone covering the Moreau move, so to some degree that nuetralized the "we don't have to chase" dynamic.  Both Kash and Schlecky were there to cover for team leaders, so they weren't contributing.  Valverde missed an opportunity to cause trouble from that move, as to a lesser degree did Evans (though in truth, I think Evans lacked the legs to do more than he did.)  I'd expect Astana held Klodie in reserve in the hope that in a perfect world neither he nor Vino would have to work.  I'm not too surprised really that Klodie was asked to wait, or that he chose to do so.  It was probably the right call at this still early stage of the race.

by Jen See on Jul 16, 2007 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

thank you
that was helpful in explaining why it was Klödi that was held back, and not someone else. I'd been thinking it was a reminder on Vino's part . . .

by Sui Juris on Jul 16, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would agree with this
While ~:> is crummy at the ITT, if Vino & Kloden allow him to get 10-15 minutes on them, that would likely be too much even for them to make up in the TT.  Vino & Kloden's best chances now are to limit their losses in the Alps and hopefully recover enough for the TTs and the Pyrenees.  I think if they can keep the gap between them and the other GC contenders (Valverde, et al) to no more than 3 or 4 minutes after tomorrow's stage, they've still got a reasonable chance of pulling it out next week.

To me, it'll be interesting to see what ~:>'s strategy is tomorrow.  If he's seriously thinking about winning, he knows he's going to have to put up some big numbers in the mountains.  That means he'll have to do what he did yesterday at least once, and probably twice more in this year's Tour.  I dunno if the rest day is going to be enough time to recuperate to try for another such jaunt tomorrow.  If it is, it'd probably be a good idea for him to do so, as my impression over the last couple years is that ~:> is better in the Alps than the Pyrenees.  I just know I won't be too surprised if he attempts an attack on the Col du Telegraphe.  I would think that would be the likeliest place to put in an attack since there's not much descending before going up the Col du Galibier, and he'd need a big gap before the descent into Briancon so that the guys behind him can't catch up on the descent...

by Le Comte on Jul 16, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chicken Augury
I think stage 8 provided cryptic messages about the favorites. But I think the GC future is bleak for the Chicken.

Menchov might be the beneficiary of Ras's yellow jersey.

He was away all day, and managed to pry open a big gap when nobody was chasing. The gap plunged on the last climb when the action among the favorites started.

Now he's going to be tired, and he's going to be marked. I'm don't think he'll be able to get away. But he could setup a nice counter attack by Menchov tomorrow.

-K-

by KevinK on Jul 16, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gavia knows her business
but I wanted to add that Kloeden knows who pays his salary. Astana had the same strategy as all the other major favorites except for Valv., Evans, and Rogers. I.e., but a danger-man in the break so that the captain doesn't have to work.

Kash being up the road took pressure off of Vino, until Rass' break got dangerous, then they worked a bit.

Kloeden helped Vino when Vino cramped because Vino is the boss. Think Discovery with Armstrong ... Vino brings the budget, Vino gets what Vino needs. Kloeden knew this when he signed on. Besides, regardless of how you rate their competitive talents, Vino is an Alpha-male and Kloedi is a Beta-male. Nothing wrong with being either, but Vino is the man and Kloedi is not, simple as that.

Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Jul 16, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually
I kinda wonder if there was an implicit agreement between the two a la Hinault and Lemond in '85 and '86, a sort of "you help me this year and I'll help you next".  

by Le Comte on Jul 16, 2007 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thought about that
I'm sure that was the plan going in. One difference: Hinault won in '85. If Vino fades away this year, I don't know he'll be so magnanimous next time. He might, but it'd take an awfully big man to do so.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 16, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hinault wasn't
all that magnanimous in '86.

If Vino's injuries prevent him from giving his best shot this year all agreements would be voided.

by Punctured on Jul 16, 2007 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep
Totally.  LOL, that part - the bags of euros - goes without sayin' :-)

Also, Klodie has always had the loyal gregario streak.  What was it the Pyrenees a few years back he waited for Ulle?  There was some controversy over that decision, too, as I recall.

by Jen See on Jul 16, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Paying Klodi
Good point about Klodi recognizing who's paying his salary.  Did you see James Raia's latest where he gives a brief description of the teams including the team budgets?  T-Mob spends the most (naturally) @ 20.4M while Astana is comfortably is 2nd @ $16.32M.  3rd goes down to Cofidis @ $13.6M.  At any rate my guess is that Klodi is being paid pretty well to drag Vino up on stage 8.

Here's the link:

http://www.byjamesraia.com/categories/Tour-de-France%2C-2007/

by ursula on Jul 16, 2007 12:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Sheesh
I didn't realize Cofidis was the #3 team in terms of budget.  They don't seem to be getting much in return for their investment.  Or am I missing something?

by Le Comte on Jul 16, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've seen those numbers,
but they don't always seem to compute with the word on the street.

I've read interviews w/ T-Mobile where they claim that Astana has a 30% higher budget than they do, and Rabo & Disco have both been reported as having 15 million euro budgets.

I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, but I think they may not measure everything in a standard way that can be compared from team to team.

Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Jul 16, 2007 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

A couple updates
L'equipe reports that the spectator hit by Sinke is out of danger, but has a "relatively grave" head injury.  Sinke has returned home.

Also an update from the same source on OGrady.  He is reportedly conscious and in stable condition.  His, hmm, prognosis is favorable.  The laundry list of fractures includes, three minor fractures to his ribs near his first three vertebrae, five broken ribs on the right side, fractured right shoulder blade, and torn ligaments in his right shoulder.  He also punctured a lung, which was "drained immediately."  The doctors are "satisfied" with his current condition.  He's one lucky dude.

(phew, i think i got all that right.  medical reports are always a bit challenging.)

by Jen See on Jul 16, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions  

I just sauntered into the Cafe to see if anyone
had heard anything on Stuey's prognosis. I'm glad to see the doctors are "satisfied." Bobby J. has a blog and this morning he wrote about how worried the whole team was and that he didn't want to elaborate on his condition out of respect for Stuey's family. That really worried me, but by the sound of things, as you've reported, the danger seems to have passed. Lucky Stuey, get well mate... and "harden the fuck up!"

by Scott. on Jul 16, 2007 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

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