TT Number Crunching

by KevinK on Jul 17, 2007 9:59 PM EDT

Some back of the envelope calculations follow. Valverde might rue the day he didn't work with Moreau. The days of yellow for the chicken might be numbered, and he might finish a few rungs beneath Menchov in the GC.

If you flip back through prior TT performances, like last year's TdF, you'll find that the patterns from this year's prologue are no fluke. Evans gave up 3 minutes to Klodi in the second 57 km ITT.

The race of truth? We will see...

Rider    Prologue Speed (kph)
Kloden    52.38
Vino    50.79
Kash    50.34
Evans    50.25
Levi 49.89
Menchov    49.81
Valverde49.55
Moreau 49.12
Sastre    48.53
Chicken    46.85

If we project 95% of the prologue speed to the TTs the time gaps to Kloden by the slower guys are:

Rider    Klodi Deltas (min)
Vino    2.04 + 2.08 = 4.12
Kash    2.64 + 2.69 = 5.33
Evans    2.76 + 2.81 = 5.57
Levi 3.24 + 3.3 = 6.54
Menchov    3.36 + 3.42 = 6.78
Valverde 3.72 + 3.79 = 7.51
Moreau 4.32 + 4.44 = 8.76
Sastre    5.16 + 5.25 = 10.41
Chicken    7.67 + 7.82 = 15.49

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Comments

Its not linear

Interesting but its not linear so really pretty meaningless, even if all are on the same form. That multiplier certainly depends on distance - people like given lengths better than others. The prologue was so short that it never really got into the teeth of metabolism like the long TT's will. I'd much rather take previous years TT's averaged out.

I do think the order may be about right, although I think LL is actually better in later Time Trials so the fact that the first big one is so late is to his advantage. (IMO) Late time trials favor the smooth efficient guys over the power guys especially non-PED because nobody has a bunch of punch left so technique means more.

The gaps you gave other than to Kloden are too small I think, and that is too big.

by Markk on Jul 18, 2007 12:07 AM EDT reply actions

it is hard to compare

But I was too lazy to do anything more accurate.

Where I did look, I was reminded of the time gaps that Kloden put into his rivals over 50 km. His performance last year in the second TT is mind boggling. He almost kept up his prologue pace over 50+ km, and only lost a few seconds to Honchar. hmmm...

But last year he didn't do as well in the prologue. Maybe the course last year was more technical than this one. Also, the favorites from this year might have muffed a few seconds here or there in the prologue that they won't lose in the longer TTs.

Here's the 2006 TdF results:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006//tour06/?id=results/tour067
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/tour06/?id=results/tour0619

-K-

by KevinK on Jul 18, 2007 6:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Levi?

Wow! I realize that this is a new year, but based on these times, Levi looks like he could drop a whole lot of time to Klodi, not to mention some of the other favorites, on Saturday. Yes, I'm aware of his other results this year, and the fact that he's done a lot of work on his position in the wind tunnel, but I can't help but think that he is headed for a top ten placing in the TT, and maybe top 5 overall, at best. His performance in the Prologue was a good litmus test, and we can expect similar placings to the other GC guys, including Contador. I wouldn't be surprised if Disco has a leadership issue on their hands once The Accountant takes time out of Levi in the TT.

by Eric V on Jul 18, 2007 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Missing Astarloza, Contador and Moreau

But I checked and Astarloza was 2 seconds faster than Kashechkin in the Prologue, followed by Contador, whose Prologue time was a fraction of a second faster than Kashechkin.

Moreau was roughly midway between Valverde and Sastre in the prologue: 6 seconds behind Valverde and 7 seconds ahead of Sastre, so I would guess a little over 9 minutes for a projected Klödi delta.

by TdFblog on Jul 18, 2007 12:37 AM EDT reply actions

Hm

I understand the rough draft you're creating here... just wondering, what sort of gap does Cancellara project to? That would be fun to contemplate.

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 18, 2007 2:03 AM EDT reply actions

Oh and

I am totally rooting for the chicken to lose by 15 minutes. Then, I want him to apologize to the entire Menchov family, in Russian. Then he has to sign a contract with ... well, stick him in Rabobank, that's punishment enough.

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 18, 2007 2:06 AM EDT reply actions

~:> has brought bad karma on himself

but maybe he's auditioning for a future career as a Disco DS. He sounded like Bruyneel trashing Leipheimer.

;-)

by socal @ Podium Cafe on Jul 18, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a bit harsh

don't you think? Making him stay with Rabobank :-)

"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 18, 2007 9:04 AM EDT reply actions

apples 'n oranges

Indurain used to race the prologue with the goal of not losing the overall race that day (unlike Chris Boardman). In '94 Boardman won the prologue but lost oodles of time to Indurain in the first real TT. I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in a 4.9 mile race when compared to a 30+ mile deal.

Vlaenderen die Leu

by Mr Van P on Jul 18, 2007 9:49 AM EDT reply actions

true, true

It would make more sense to go back and look at longer ITT performances, but that would be more work!

It would be nice to have a mash-up-able pro cyclist results database.

-K-

by KevinK on Jul 18, 2007 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, since you asked

it's not a full database, but is a short summary of the non-prologue ITTs in 2005 and 2006 for the riders I thought might be in contention (I pulled this together on Monday). I didn't do average speeds, but it summarizes the time each cyclist had relative to the winner of the particular ITT. I figured it would help give me an idea of what to expect on the next two Saturdays.

2005 2005 2006 2006
St 1 St 20 St 7 St 19

Distance (km) 19.0 55.0 52.0 57.0

Contador    1.57    6.12    n/a    n/a
Evans        1.41    2.06    1.49    3.41
Kashechkin    2.12    4.24    n/a    n/a
Kloden        0.44    n/a    1.43    0.41
Leipheimer    1.13    3.13    6.05    6.02
Mayo        3.15    9.44    5.37    n/a
Menchov        1.55    6.53    1.44    4.33
Moreau        1.50    3.11    2.03    5.33
Rasmussen    3.14    7.47    6.30    8.51
Sastre        1.32    3.10    2.11    4.42
Schlek        n/a    n/a    5.16    5.39
Valverde    2.24    n/a    n/a    n/a
Vinokourov    0.21    1.16    n/a    n/a

Note: the times given are hours.minutes (e.g., Mayo's time in the 2005 Stage 1 ITT was 3 minutes 15 seconds, not 3.15 minutes, behind the winner of that stage).

For what it's worth...

by Le Comte on Jul 18, 2007 12:03 PM EDT reply actions

Bah

sorry about the formatting. It didn't come out too well, did it?

by Le Comte on Jul 18, 2007 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Just to test these numbers

If Kevin's numbers project out correctly, then the GC standings after Saturday's TT would be

Klöden      ------
Cattle      1:37
Valv.Piti     2:28

Leipheimer     3:17
El Pollo      3:50
Kashechkin     4:22

Sastre     4:59
Vinokourov      6:19
Menchov     6:42

by socal @ Podium Cafe on Jul 18, 2007 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

It is interesting to see the numbers

In such a stark form.

I doubt that the numbers are more than qualitative guide: e.g. Klodi is way faster than the Chicken, but we'll see how it all sorts out on Saturday.

I'm especially curious to see what Ras can do. Sastre's second TT last year, even though it wasn't enough to get him on the podium, was a great performance for him. I wonder how much the Chicken can elevate his game with so much riding on the line. Will he completely crack? Just think, he'll be the last to go with all the world watching. Wow, that's some pressure.

The TT should be an excellent primer for fireworks to come in the Pyrenees.

If Klodi slays them all, which looks probable, the attacks are going to come thick and fast. It should be a thriller.

I also wonder if Vino can mount some sort of resurgance coming out of the TT and into the Pyrenees.

-K-

by KevinK on Jul 18, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not so much the numbers

in the first TT, since Yellow can give you a boost. It's the numbers in the second TT after 3 long days of climbing. That's where you could see large differentials between ~:-> and the real TT contenders. He lost over 8' to Kloden last year on the last TT.

"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 18, 2007 3:14 PM EDT reply actions

You know

what's gonna hurt? the day after the Albi ITT. IMHO the only thing worse than doing a TT after climbing would be climbing after doing a TT.

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 19, 2007 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Totally

I don't have a problem with the way the Tour is backloaded this year. Combine that with multiple overall contenders and no dominant team and we've got the potential for an incredibly exciting last week of racing saturday - saturday.

"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 19, 2007 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions

History

The problem with looking at previous tests is that riders change from year to year. Vino for instance has become a better TTer by all accounts. LL has supposedly worked on his TT skills too. Hell, even ~:> has worked in the wind tunnel a bit.

To my mind the best previous TTs to look at are comparable ones earlier this year- with the BIG PROVISO that riders are not necessarily peaking at the time of a particular TT. (Thus looking at Cancellara's Tour of Cali TT effort is kinda meaningless.)

So for instance, look at the recent Tour of Switzerland (Now with Liechtenstein! as chris said). Results from a shorter (33.7k) and hillier TT course than what we will see later this week we have:

Cancellara- 41:46
Kloden----+:20
Schumacher +33
Gusev------+1:05
Karpets-----+ 1:06
Dekker------+1:36

Now I look at these results and I see that except for Schumacher (who's having a forgettable TdF IMO) the times and placings here are in the ballpark lining up to the TdF prologue.

Next the Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré and its 40.7k course. I think this course was also hillier than the TdF TTs but not as hilly as the Swiss TT. Please correct me if I am wrong. Some results:

Vino-----52:08
Kash----+:09
Zabriskie-+:37
Evans----+:38
Menchov-+:40
Leipheimer +1:11
Valverde- +1:18
Millar----+1:35
Hincapie- +2:09
Fothen- +2:21
Contador- +3:17

These results vary quite a bit differently than the TdF prologue and here sickness might be the chief culprit (see below). Contador and Hincapie are way down while Kash and Menchov are way up.

-----------

What do I conclude from looking at these two TTs?

Kloden should be the favorite in Albi. He should pick up time on the rest of the GC guys. If he comes out of Albi in 1st place overall, none of us should be surprised.
But Kloden won't pick up nearly the time Kevin suggests above. If every rider does their best (a big IF) then the standings will still be oh so close. We could be looking at still 5-8 riders all within a minute of the yellow.
But still it will put a lot of pressure on the other riders to get lots of time in the Pyrenees before the last TT in order to withstand Kloden's assault on the last TT. Still, that's doable.
What might be a big variable is how flat Albi is. Chris postulated a few days ago that Evans won't do so well since it won't be rolling terrain. We'll see.
Vino, if he feels well ( an even bigger IF) should gain time on his rivals but not nearly enough.
What this small sample set doesn't show is the health of the riders. Like we know that in the CDL Valverde, Leipheimer, Hincapie, and Contador were all sick so perhaps their results there project to a worst case scenario that is unlikely to happen in Albi.

-Not that its important to the overall, but I have no idea what to expect of Z.

Hope this helps.

by ursula on Jul 18, 2007 3:38 PM EDT reply actions

The biggest unknown about Saturday is... Sunday

This will be on a lot of GC contenders' minds while they consider whether to give it 80% or 100% in the TT on Saturday:

Anyone who leaves it all on the road in Alba on Saturday is probably going to find themselves going backwards on Sunday afternoon as the other heads of state climb toward Plateau de Beille. The stage ends at the top of a 15.9 km climb at 7.9 percent. Plenty of distance and gradient to take five minutes or more out of anyone who burned all their matches on Saturday.

Klöden seems like a prime candidate to ride at 80% on Saturday. It does him no good to take the maillot jaune on Saturday and then have a Sunday on which he loses ten minutes. (On stage 16 last year, Landis lost ten minutes to ~:> and over eight minutes to the GC contenders.)

The best case scenario for Klödi is to use the Albi TT to close within a minute or so of the lead, hang close while el Pollo or someone else defends the jersey in the Pyrenees, and then take the maillot jaune in the final TT on July 28.

Most likely to leave it all on the road Saturday and pay for it on Sunday: Rasmussen, if he is serious about GC contention; Leipheimer, who is being undermined by his DS and can't lose ground to Contador; Menchov, who needs to make up for time lost on Tuesday; Vino and Kash, if they retain any thoughts of being their team's GC hope.

Any other GC contender might ride the Albi TT at 80 or 90 percent of their max effort, weighing the risk of having nothing in the tank on Sunday versus the risk of losing 6-8 minutes Saturday if they ride at 80 percent while Klöden or Evans rides at 100 percent.

by socal @ Podium Cafe on Jul 18, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Very good point

another thing that should be considered in this light is the team strength relative to the stage on Sunday. Rabo has been working pretty hard while Disco has been able to ride easy since the attacks yesterday. I expect Rabo to be in full split personality mode after Menchov pulls back the time to ~:> on Saturday. With the strength that Disco has expect to see them launch another 2 - 3 riders up the road on Sunday just like yesterday. Velverde & Mayo to me have the only other teams that have the legs to really attack the early climb and still be around to help on the final ascent.

Coup De Pot Rouleurs

by Clydesdale on Jul 18, 2007 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, great point

About stage 14 overshadowing Albi.

Kloden just needs to be basically even come the last TT. The question for him is will his team support him in the Pyrenees, whose stages are much tougher than the Alps were- where on stage 9 at least he was dropped on the ascent? What if Vino has a good TT? There are unknowns like this about Klodi that keep me from thinking of him as the likely winner at this point.

As to the other guys, I agree with clydesdale re: Disco. I see strengths, not weaknesses on their team like I do on Rabo. We'll see in the Pyrenees what happens when both Contador and Leipheimer both attack- which we haven't seen yet.

Mayo- He's not particularly adept at TTing either. It will be interesting to see what he does.

by ursula on Jul 18, 2007 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Is it possible to hold back?

Can anyone ride at 90% of their max effort at Albi without risking several minutes?

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I guess most of the guys in contention will be on the course at the same time, so they can "mark" each other at a distance, and take a group vote to not go too hard.

-K-

by KevinK on Jul 19, 2007 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Sure

That's what power meters are for.

"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 19, 2007 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I wish I could share your optimism about Disco

For their strength to be a weapon and not just a source of conflict, there has to be trust and cooperation on the team. Maybe that will happen next week, but I am no more optimistic about that than I am about the time trialing of el Pollo.

Also... Leipheimer attacking? Has he ever attacked on a mountain stage in a grand tour? He is an Indurain-style grand tour rider, he follows the attacks in the mountains, usually does a good job surviving the attrition on the mountain stages, and moves up the GC with strong TT results. Klöden and Evans also use that approach, for the most part, only Klöden is a more dangerous time trialist than Levi or Evans while Evans is a shade or two more aggressive on the climbing stages.

If Klöden is near top form, Levi will need career-best time trials to finish ahead of him on GC. Another reason why I would be very surprised if Levi is one of the contenders dialing it down to 80 percent effort on Saturday.

by socal @ Podium Cafe on Jul 18, 2007 7:04 PM EDT reply actions

Exactly.

I would love to be wrong, but Levi will be lucky to make the bottom step of the podium. Contador is in better form right now. It is sad for Levi, but he might find himself in a support role before this race is over. If he can somehow find the form he had in the Tour of Germany a couple year's back, he may have a chance. He just seems to get his peak either too early or too late for Le Tour. Maybe he'll get it right this time, but I have my doubts. He better be on fire this Saturday, or Contador is going to get the green light on Sunday.

by Eric V on Jul 18, 2007 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh I agree

Contador is the more dangerous Disco rider. Even if Levi won this year, the future of Disco is The Accountant. Levi is at most a good interim default leader between Lance and Alberto.

In a way he's much like Klodi on Astana. We've all been wondering if Kloden was gonna toe the Vino line but come stage 8, we saw him sacrificing himself to keep Vino close. Only in stage 9 where Vino had other help did Kloden compete. I think it was Chris who called Klodi a great beta male and I agree.

Levis is also a beta male. Did you hear his post stage 9 interview? he was genuinely in awe of Contador's climbing abilities. I didn't detect a whiff of envy there. Because of that I can see the possibility of Levi actually turning into domestique in the Pyrenees if things are not going his way and Contador is flying high. Of course it could easily not happen that way but I just don't see the level of Rabo-type dysfunction going on with Disco. Adding in two other younger riders (Popo and Gusev) the talent is spread out for all to see- including by Levi. He's not the #1 stud. But he does still have a real chance for the podium- if he does use the help of his younger teammates.

At any rate, just thinking and debating what's gonna happen this weekend gives me goose bumps! This is what the TdF is all about baby!

by ursula on Jul 18, 2007 11:24 PM EDT reply actions

JB and Lance were famous

for playing mind games with the peloton; maybe that was more Lance's influence, who knows; but why do so many of you have this knee-jerk reaction to assume that JB's public comments are evidence of his lack of support for Levi? I guess we'll only know if/when Levi finally shows his cards as to whether or not any gamesmanship has been going on, but I'm still not convinced JB has been dissing Levi.

None of us know what's been discussed within the team behind closed doors, and from all the public comments I've seen by the individual team members, they seem like a pretty enthusiastic group of riders. We got used to hearing JB's unwavering support for Lance (he had good reason for that), so anything less regarding Levi gives an air of lack of confidence. Maybe JB and Levi are just being realistic of their chances. If there was any real dissent or discord going on, I would think it would have been reflected in the team's outward appearance by now.

by Scott. on Jul 19, 2007 2:25 AM EDT reply actions

OK

Maybe this is all part of a possum strategy. I dunno. It looks messy to me.

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 19, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Contador is impressive, but

I guess we don't really know if he can keep it up for three weeks. Levi, presumably, has saved his efforts.

Regardless of the team leader controversy, Contador's accelerations on the climbs are awesome.

-K-

by KevinK on Jul 19, 2007 6:52 AM EDT reply actions

Evans in yellow after TT Perhaps?

I think Evans will be in yellow after this time trial. He only lost a few seconds to Kloden in the first TT last year whilst in the second he had a horrible run with a puncture costing him big time and momentum. I think he is a stronger time trialer than all of Valverde, Mayo and Ras. Even so i don't know if this would be enough to hold it to Paris as Kloden will most likely make time on Evans in the first time trial and with the second he could gain the lead. He may have to rely on being stronger in the Pyrenees with its 7%+ gradients that he, Contador and Valverde seem to be much better at than the other guys this year. Kloden does not seem to be to respondent to fast turns of speed this year because of his injuries sustained in his crash possibly. Personally i think it will be Valverde, Kloden, Evans in no particular order after the time trial and then possibly changing between those three all the way to Paris.

Burger

by Burger on Jul 19, 2007 1:02 PM EDT reply actions