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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Le Tour '07: Stage 12 Live!

Lots of subplots this morning. In the green jersey chase, Tom Boonen will be nervously eyeing that cat-2 hill toward the day's end. Milram and Barloworld will want to put him under pressure... provided their own sprinters can get over the thing. In the main event, nobody in their right mind will want to do anything on the eve of the time trial and the Pyrenees... which is where Alexandre Vinokourov comes in. He showed his true colors today: attack at all costs, against all reason. Vino knows how to race smartly from the front, but since he no longer has that luxury, it's back to the old aggressive Vino, to see who he can crack. Interestingly, there will be a huge collective temptation to ignore him, and at 8.05 back you can almost justify it. But letting him back in the race would hurt a lot more than ganging up to chase him down.

There are a lot of guys waking up now, hoping a suitable break gets away and stays there, so the contenders for all the various titles still up for grabs can take it easy, one last day.

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from CN
13:45 CEST    32km/146.5km to go
There is a break of seven riders clear...stand by.
Current situation

    * Alessandro Ballan (Lampre-Fondital), Laurent Lefèvre (Bouygues Telecom), Staf Scheirlinckx (Cofidis), Manuel Beltrán (Liquigas), Matteo Tosatto (Quickstep-Innergetic), David Millar (Saunier Duval-Prodir) and Moisés Dueñas (Agritubel)
    * Peloton at ?

America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed. -Eleanor Roosevelt

by ELVISGOAT on Jul 20, 2007 7:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Millar off the front again?
gotta hand it to the guy, he's been relentless this year.

by Scott. on Jul 20, 2007 8:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Should have looked at your last
update ElvisG, the latest from CN is

Pierrick Fédrigo (Bouygues Telecom) and Amets Txurruka (Euskaltel-Euskadi) out front, 3.58 ahead of the peloton

66.5km/112km to go

by Scott. on Jul 20, 2007 8:43 AM EDT reply actions  

Good morning, everyone!
Ongarato (MRM) abandoned shortly after the start.
I have the best job in the world. I mean, I get paid to hurt other people!! How much better can it get? -Jens Voigt, Philosopher, 05/27/06

by Ruthann on Jul 20, 2007 8:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Ong.
Abandoned by ambulance, I think. They showed a brief clip on TV. He was on the ground holding his shoulder and being attended to by the doctor.

The only one I can remember tnis year abandoning in the stuff this for a game of soldiers way that you or I might abandon was Cavendish.

by Monty. on Jul 20, 2007 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

My lame attempt at stirring up controversy
someone wrote in to CN with an assessment of how the TTs will affect the race based on last year's TT results, including a complete breakdown of last year's time differentials. CN published the viewer's letter in the live update for today's race. Is somebody lifting Kevin et al's hard work here at the PC and sending it in to CN as their own? Inquiring minds want to know.

by Scott. on Jul 20, 2007 9:03 AM EDT reply actions  

Wow
That's obnoxious. Kevin, write in to CN.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

just to clarify, what is posted in the CN
live update is NOT identical to Kevin's work. I just found it eerily similar in that not many people would make such an effort. Like I said, I was making a lame attempt...

by Scott. on Jul 20, 2007 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

were the numbers the same?
Based on my TdF team performance so far, I'd say my numbers aren't worth copying!
-K-

by KevinK on Jul 20, 2007 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also, I've noticed
that some of the topics that get kicked around here end up being discussed elsewhere, even on TV. That's either because people here are on the cutting edge, and the conversations we have resonate, or the cycling universe is so small, that everyone is naturally drawn to the same concepts at the same time.
-K-

by KevinK on Jul 20, 2007 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

No, the numbers are not the same,
just the concept. I agree though with your assessment of the influence the PC might have elsewhere and the small community we share. I too have read lots of comments on other forums that sound a lot like what people have said here. Whether that's coincidence or not I have no clue.

by Scott. on Jul 20, 2007 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

While we're waiting . . .
Check out this story on rebranded/non-sponsor components being used by the teams this Tour.

by Sui Juris on Jul 20, 2007 9:27 AM EDT reply actions  

10:10 gap to the peloton,
48 mi/77.8k to go.  Markus Burkquart out in no-man's land at about 5:30 in back of Fedrigo and Txurruka.  
I have the best job in the world. I mean, I get paid to hurt other people!! How much better can it get? -Jens Voigt, Philosopher, 05/27/06

by Ruthann on Jul 20, 2007 9:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Also from CN
Prudhomme had a press conference this morning, ticked off about the timing of the Danish Federation's release of the news about Rasmussen. It seems he has a point, considering that he was allowed ride the Danish national championships on July 1st, despite the Federation's knowledge of the missed tests.

by Scott. on Jul 20, 2007 9:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Technical difficulties
Dunno what's up. Surely it's not because the race is that boring. They tried to show it and the picture broke up. So it's the Discovery wives now: Podium Gal, Odessa, n/s who's next.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 9:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Phil says that Txurruka is the
lightest rider in the race. That is really saying something, considering the company.
I have the best job in the world. I mean, I get paid to hurt other people!! How much better can it get? -Jens Voigt, Philosopher, 05/27/06

by Ruthann on Jul 20, 2007 9:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Coverage back on
Peloton at 10.00

Burghardt at 5.00

Liquigas leading the charge.

15km before the climb.

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 9:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Top 5 crashes now
Gawd, VS can't stop trying to make this a comic action sport. Even their promos for the TT show crashing. What's next, promoting the podium ceremonies by showing a rider slipping on the steps?

I think there is a cabal of guys at VS who really get cycling, but they're always having to explain it to and appease the bottom feeders who run the network and prefer ultimate fighting.

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 9:46 AM EDT reply actions  

Done
We need a good name for the doping coverage.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I know what you mean
I hate those ads, as I don't like to see any crashes at all.  But, bearing with them is a relatively small price to pay to be able to watch Le Tour...

by Le Comte on Jul 20, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Peloton all strung out
despite having just come thru the feed zone, they're apparently starting to chase.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 9:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Watched the 8PM replay last night
A couple of points jumped out.

The Astanas are some mean mofos.

The chicken looked very tired when he was standing on the podium in the yellow. I imagine the work in the day, and the MIB controversy is weighing on him.

Finally, there is still a lot of racing left! We think a sort out has happened, but the whole race can change again.

-K-

by KevinK on Jul 20, 2007 10:07 AM EDT reply actions  

The race is going to undergo multiple changes
in the next 5 days.
"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 20, 2007 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Montée de la Jeante
10.4 km climb @ 6.1 %
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:08 AM EDT reply actions  

Break is on the climb
Peloton at 6.08. Marcus Burghardt waited for them.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Pozzato
Thinks he can win today. He's counting on dropping the other sprinters on the climb, I think.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Ahh, thanks
and re Rasmussen looking tired, I agree. I also thought Jens! looked realllly thin - even drawn, when being interviewed the other day. Its going to be the last man standing I think

by ianmcw on Jul 20, 2007 10:24 AM EDT reply actions  

Headwind?
How much of a headwind can there really be with all those trees?

by Scott. on Jul 20, 2007 10:28 AM EDT reply actions  

piano climb
Will sanity reign? Where's Vinokourov?
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Looks like DSC is near
the front there.  Maybe a day for Yaropop?
I have the best job in the world. I mean, I get paid to hurt other people!! How much better can it get? -Jens Voigt, Philosopher, 05/27/06

by Ruthann on Jul 20, 2007 10:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Saw him
good thought. DCS are jonesing for a stage.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pop!
Burghardt. Too much moving around apparently. No matter...

C d'E on the front, n/s which one. Huge headwind making things miserable. So of course the Astanas move up.

Boonen close to the front. He got the memo.

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

Nice rack.
[Antlers]
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:35 AM EDT reply actions  

some guy
had a football helmet with about 10 feet of fake antlers on them. Just so you know.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have this fear
that I go to Alps to see a stage fulfilling a life long dream. As my favorite rider comes by the Borat guy runs in front of me. Nooooooo!

by Punctured on Jul 20, 2007 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Looks like a sprint finish
Looks like a sprint finish. Boonen looked good on the climb.

by Markk on Jul 20, 2007 10:36 AM EDT reply actions  

You'd hope
given what the next few days are like. But we'll see.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Soler attacks!
Yaropop there too. KOM battle reigns. Yaropop gets it. These were 3rd and 4th place points. Popovych looks like he's making an objective of the polka dots.

Wegmann and Mercado tip over, back up.

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:46 AM EDT reply actions  

~:> up front
riding conservatively. Here's a question -- you're generally not supposed to attack the yellow jersey if he's in a crash. But if the Chicken fell off, does Menchov go? I say yes!
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Menchov was dutifully working
for the chicken yesterday. I thought that was interesting.
-K-

by KevinK on Jul 20, 2007 10:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Ugh!
well, things should change tomorrow.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

At least the sun isn't beating
down on them today.  They all were looking really fried yesterday, after several miserable days in 90-100 degree weather.
I have the best job in the world. I mean, I get paid to hurt other people!! How much better can it get? -Jens Voigt, Philosopher, 05/27/06

by Ruthann on Jul 20, 2007 10:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Vino
P&P on the lookout for an attack. I'm guessing no. At this point, what he'd gain now would come out of his time tomorrow. Vino can do a TT. He should wait.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 10:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Headwind finish according
to Eurosport. Attacking into the wind would be a suicide mission. I don't think Vino wants to flame out, he wants to win. Maybe a 1 km attack for a stage win.
-K-

by KevinK on Jul 20, 2007 11:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Paging Cancellara
Headwind finish might make it poss for another 1 to go move from Cance.

That would be coo' :-)

by Jen See on Jul 20, 2007 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Cance sadly
was just off the back when I last saw him. He almost got it yesterday.

by Chilltown on Jul 20, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gap now 30"
under 5km. Another last second catch today. QS on the front.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:19 AM EDT reply actions  

22 secs now
at 4km. Yeah, it could be close, but we say that every time.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Txurruka
digging way down to the bottom of his musette of courage.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:21 AM EDT reply actions  

3km`
12 secs. Field sprint, these guys are coming back too fast.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:22 AM EDT reply actions  

The catch coming
Peloton coming up in 3... 2...
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Last km
coming now
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Here we go
QS on the front, Boonen 3rd. Nobody challenging, just waiting for the QS move.

Dean towing Thor up.

Boonen goes, Chavanel too, Zabel on him.

BOONEN!!

Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:24 AM EDT reply actions  

huh
Boonen sat up and celebrated pretty early, didn't he?

by Sui Juris on Jul 20, 2007 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Straight line sprint
Boonen up the gut, Zabel behind him and Hunter third. Both came around in the last 20 meters, but neither with success. Zabel probably 2nd but it's close. Good comeback for the maillot vert!
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:26 AM EDT reply actions  

Steegmans
has shaped the TdF sprints for a couple years running now.
-K-

by KevinK on Jul 20, 2007 11:27 AM EDT reply actions  

Sl;owly but surely
the QS train has taken over the finales. Two weeks ago nobody was deferring to them, now they are. Zabel didn't ask any of his boys to lead him out today.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Took the words right off of my fingers...
The biggest key to winning green?

Keep Gert happy.

Whether or not Tomeke "let" Gert get a stage win, he so freaking deserves it either way. The Steegmans TGV gets the most valuable worker award.

Big day for Tom and his boys.

After Hoste led Predictor to a bigger finish than any QSI riders in the spring, it must feel very nice to be dominating the sprints in Predictor's big race.

Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Jul 20, 2007 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Between
Steegmans and Van Summer Ale that's a lot of Belgian beef hauling their respective sprinters around.

I would like to see a breakdown of total wattage expenditure for Steegmans, VSA, Boonen and McEwen in the last K of a sprint. The numbers would be eye popping.

"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 20, 2007 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well now
That was an appropriate stage for any number of reasons. Peloton rests for tomorrow; sprint contested by the remaining sprint contestants. Boonen still the fastest. Break reeled in with 2km. All business as usual.
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Tommeke!!!!
let's all sing together "Tommeke Tommeke Tommeke"

by samboo on Jul 20, 2007 11:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Can someone
post the full results? Gotta do kid duty... Thanks!
Got a problem? Va fa Napoli!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2007 11:31 AM EDT reply actions  

Brief Results from CN
Results

1 Tom Boonen (Bel) Quickstep-Innergetic
2 Erik Zabel (Ger) Milram
3 Robert Hunter (RSA) Barloworld
4 Daniele Bennati (Ita) Lampre-Fondital
5 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Crédit Agricole
6 Bernhard Eisel (Aut) T-Mobile
7 Sébastien Chavanel (Fra) Française Des Jeux
8 Nicolas Jalabert (Fra) Agritubel
9 Robert Förster (Ger) Gerolsteiner
10 Andrey Kashechkin (Kaz) Astana

General Classification

1 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank                                        
2 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne                           2.35
3 Iban Mayo Diez (Spa) Saunier Duval - Prodir                                  2.39
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto                                          2.41
5 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team            3.08
6 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC                                          3.39
7 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana                                                  3.50
8 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team                     3.53
9 Kim Kirchen (Lux) T-Mobile Team                                              5.06
10 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi                         5.20

by Sui Juris on Jul 20, 2007 11:36 AM EDT reply actions  

Tomeke, Tomeke, Tomeke
Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste

by Koppenberg on Jul 20, 2007 12:50 PM EDT reply actions  

OMG!
Someone replace that with a pony or something... jeez.  Chris... Help us!!!

by mobilegoat on Jul 20, 2007 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

OWW! My eyes
I think I may go blind.

:)

by johnw on Jul 20, 2007 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why
would you ever do something like that? Did Bethie pay you to?
"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 20, 2007 12:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Hey,
I never had to pay for it, ever! ;-)
Yearlong VDS Team: The Fighting Cocks - Tour only VDS Team: The Super Domestiques - Rah!

by bethie on Jul 20, 2007 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

:-O
I'm in stitches. Excellent comeback
"Ive learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead"

by Drew on Jul 20, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

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