1)Sastre
2)Valverde
3)Kloden
4)Leipheimer
5)Evans

Vino has to crack early. It's Vino's team and they will work to protect him first. Kloden would be too dangerous to let go in a break. Maybe they'll use the old T-Mobile tactics and have Kashechkin chase down Kloden.

Vino has had trouble with the transition from flat stages to the first mountain stage. So I've picked Kloden because he seems to have the fewest weaknesses.

Does Evans have enough support? Rodriguez and McEwen won't be much help in the mountains. Will the team put its resources in the surer thing - the green jersey for McEwen?

1. Kloden
   
2. Valverde
   
3. Evans
   
4. Menchov (there has to be some surprise in the top 5)
   
5. Levi

Kashechkin
Vino
Kloden
Sastre
Moreau

I'm pretty sure we're going to see a 1-2-3 from Astana.

if the riders finished in the exact order of their race numbers? Now THAT would be an exciting Tour.

Team Name
Coup De Pot Rouleurs DS'd By Clydesdale
Team Brooklyn Chewing Gum DS'd By Koppenberg
Team DemonCats DS'd By J. Dinn
Road Commandos DS'd By 1km2go
LuvMunkees DS'd By Chris Bright
Team BLS DS'd By Brandon S.
Bread and Water DS'd By Kevin
Super Guanche DS'd By Super Guanche
Paul Sherwen's Gold Mine DS'd By Dagomadness
Team Guanacos DS'd By Kos
Echelon of Fools DS'd By Hons
Mercury's Minions DS'd By Mossback
IIDGtYJAtP,tTiaF DS'd By Brian
Team Little Ring DS'd By Casher
The New Originals DS'd By Monsieur Van P
Kill Flanders DS'd By SSMITH
Off The Front DS'd By Jiggs
Only 2 Ks 2 go DS'd By lucybears
Flaming Alphas DS'd By LD82
Team Sapere Aude DS'd By Ruthann
Le Bon Mots DS'd By Drew
Tour Raiders DS'd By Jens
équipe Zegno DS'd By Zegnotronic
Yellowteel DS'd By Teel22
CCB/VW DS'd By Barry Boyce
Allez Allez DS'd By Indychuck
Glomser's Glory DS'd By Mehor
Allez, Vino! DS'd By Chilltown
The Arrivistes DS'd by Vince Lombardy
The Super Domestiques DS'd By Bethie
Team Jambon DS'd by Phlep
Square Wheels For Speed DS'd By Ursula & ??
Cutters DS'd By Lug_Junkie
Team Bjarne McGee DS'd By Ian M
Road Dogs DS'd By Dean M
Rolling Thunder Revue DS'd By Elvisgoat
Phat Arses DS'd By Not Aero
Team Angst DS'd By Angst
Equipe Anatole by Fromagerie Duval DS'd By A Golan
Hors Delay DS'd By Softie
Lampje's Team DS'd By R Langestraat
Doggy Oui Oui DS'd By Flying Dog
Vague Space DS'd By B Elenbark
Lettuce DS'd By cmec
Where's the Vino DS'd By Igo Fasta

In order of finish:

1. Vino - best combo of TT/climbing skills with the aggressiveness to make up time if he does have a bad day.
   
2. Kloden - just behind Vino, but more than capable if team leader stumbles.
   
3. Evans - continues his improvement.
   
4. Karpets - surprise! Like Brian I don't think Valv.Piti gets to Paris and Karpets will have support of a great team.
   
5. Sastre - too many KMs of TTs put paid his chance.

If riders finished in bib order then the highest placed finisher would be 11th!  There would be no top five! lol

For my top five, I wrote out the possible top 10, pasted them on my dart board and got someone who has no interest at all in the race to throw darts at 'em.  Now I don't know if the darts hitting the rider's names eliminates them from contention or not, but here's the list in dart hitting order:

1. Sastre
   
2. Valverde
   
3. Evans
   
4. leipheimer
   
5. Rogers
   
6. Kashechkin
   
7. Menchov
   
8. Kloden
   
9. Vinokourov
   
10. Contador

Again, I'm not sure which is the order here!  But one thing's for sure: a whole lot of hard analysis went into my method!

1. Vino -- The Pyrenees are harder than the Alps this year, so even if he has his usual early mountain-stage slump, it shouldn't be decisive.
2. Valverde -- the most talented rider in this field, and his improved time trialing should keep him on the podium
3. Kloden -- probably the best time trialer among the favorites, but will likely work for Vino in the mountains
4. Evans -- other than Valverde, the only rider among the favorites who is still on the upswing rather than the downswing side of his career
5. Sastre -- I hope I'm wrong and that Carlos makes the podium, but I fear the time trials are too long for him this year.

But I'll make an exception for Podium Cafe.  

1. Vino - even though he will be wearing a giant turquoise bull's eye
   
2. Levi
   
3. Sastre - Levi will blow past Sastre in the final TT
   
4. Evans - You won't see him for the entire tour...but he'll be there or thereabouts
   
5. Kloden - Kloden will do to Valverde what Levi will do to Sastre

isn't the more important question about the final VDS top 5?
Kill Flanders!

to win.  My picks:

1. Vino.  With his strong team, his desperate desire to win, and his sense of revenge for last year's exclusion, it's his to lose. He needs to avoid his customary "bad day."  He is, for sure, an angry guy on the bike.
   
2. VV.  Strong team, but I'm hoping he can hang in there for all three weeks.
   
3. Kloeden.  Past experience shows us he can place 2nd and 3rd in the Tour already, and he's showing fantastic form. I don't think Vino will unleash him and let him ride for himself, but I've been wrong before...
   
4. Leipheimer.  Hopefully he won't have bad TTs.  Hopefully DSC will support him enough to keep him "rested" enough for the TT stages.
   
5. Sastre.  Ditto.  He's the most dangerous in his third week, so look out for magnificent attacks in the Pyrenees.

has a boil on his butt again, according to cyclingnews.  He says he'll start the TdF, but may not finish.  

1.  Levi- Unwavering focus.  Excellent TT form. Good team.  Won't get hauled off in hand cuffs Friday night.
2. Vino
3. Kloden (will be about as supportive for Vino as he was for Jan)
4.  Valverde- long TT's will keep him off the podium
5.  Cadel.  Consrvative approach will keep him off the podium but in the top 5.

and it was his first (and only) 3-week stage race ever (as far as I've been able to research.)

He's raced a lot of days so far this year, too.  That third week will be brutal.

1 Levi Leipheimer
2 Vino
3 Valverde
4 Menchov
5 Sastre/Klöden

Truly hope i'm right, it'll be the 2 TT's that'll decide on this outcome. All are good enough in hte mountains, still think Klöden is overrated and probably the only dopehead in the top 10, since he was very, very close to Ullrich who, as we all know, "never doped". So how the heck did he stay with his leader in the mountains?

I really DO hope that there's not another case during the Tour, that would be devastating for cycling...