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Offseason Musings: What's More Likely

In one corner you have Oscar Freire, the sprinter par excellence who can climb a bit. Twice Milan-San Remo champion, Thrice World Road race champion. Won the Green Jersey at this year's Tour. Seemingly could win the Blue Jersey at the Vuelta anytime if he would just finish the race instead of doing more World prep. Has won several other Classic wins and individual stage victories, including three stage wins (and the points jersey) at this years' Tirreno-Adriatico against many major sprinters.

In the other corner you have Alejandro Valverde. This year's Liege-Bastogne-Liege, San Sebastian, and Dauphine Libere winner. Numerous other first places over the years, particularly in the hilly Ardennes. Has an unusually wide skill set combining climbing, sprinting, time trialing in a way that's unmatched by any other rider.

Both Freire and Valverde though have greater unfulfilled ambitions.

So the question I have is this: which will happen first:

1) valverde winning a Grand Tour or,

2) Freire winning a hilly classic: any of Flanders, Amstel, La Fleche, LBL, San Sebastian, or Lombardia?

Fill out the poll below and lets see some comments: totally wild assertions, accusations, whatever!