After years and years of well, pretty much guessing who is going to win the next important race, I have found a new way. No, not ouija boards. That went terribly wrong that one day. Never again. No, I am going the way of... statistics!
Don't look at me like that Thor. There will not be (complicated) maths. I hate maths. I blame it on teenage overexposure. Also, I suck at maths. So we're going to do statistics, the easy way. Come join me below the fold!
That sounds dirty. But you should do it anyway.
As my sample pool I picked all the podium contenders of the past 10 years who are still in the peloton. Quite nicely, that resulted in a list of ten: Johan Vansummeren, Fabian Cancellara, Maarten Tjallingi, Thor Hushovd, Juan Antonio Flecha, Tom Boonen, Pippo Pozzato, Alessandro Ballan, Stuart O'Grady and George Hincapie.
Let's look at some of the characteristics of all these fellows, and try to derive what Sunday's winner will be like - though I am in no way responsible for who you end up betting on. Unless you win. Then the spoils are totally mine.
1. NATIONALITY
| 1 | VANSUMMEREN Johan | Belgium |
| 2 | CANCELLARA Fabian | Switzerland |
| 3 | TJALLINGII Maarten | Netherlands |
| 4 | HUSHOVD Thor | Norway |
| 5 | FLECHA GIANNONI Juan Antonio | Spain |
| 6 | BOONEN Tom | Belgium |
| 7 | POZZATO Filippo | Italy |
| 8 | BALLAN Alessandro | Italy |
| 9 | O'GRADY Stuart | Australia |
| 10 | HINCAPIE George | American |
Conclusion: You need to be either Italian, or - of course - Belgian. Though really, there's not much to conclude from this, nationalities are - obvious joke alert - all over the map for this race.
2. HEIGHT (cm)
| 1 | VANSUMMEREN Johan | 197 |
| 2 | CANCELLARA Fabian | 186 |
| 3 | TJALLINGII Maarten | 188 |
| 4 | HUSHOVD Thor | 183 |
| 5 | FLECHA GIANNONI Juan Antonio | 181 |
| 6 | BOONEN Tom | 192 |
| 7 | POZZATO Filippo | 183 |
| 8 | BALLAN Alessandro | 190 |
| 9 | O'GRADY Stuart | 176 |
| 10 | HINCAPIE George | 191 |
Conclusion: You need to be tall to podium in PR. Our PR model is a strapping 187 cm, while, according to the first google result I found, the average western male is only 177 cm (seriously? I'm 179 cm, and I'm a girl! Bunch of western shorties).
Seriously Leukie? 177cm? You may as well give up now.
3. WEIGHT (kg)
| 1 | VANSUMMEREN Johan | 79 |
| 2 | CANCELLARA Fabian | 81 |
| 3 | TJALLINGII Maarten | 81,5 |
| 4 | HUSHOVD Thor | 83 |
| 5 | FLECHA GIANNONI Juan Antonio | 72 |
| 6 | BOONEN Tom | 82 |
| 7 | POZZATO Filippo | 73 |
| 8 | BALLAN Alessandro | 72 |
| 9 | O'GRADY Stuart | 73 |
| 10 | HINCAPIE George | 79 |
Don't worry boys, I'm sure it's all muscle. Ideal weight: 78 kilograms.
4. WINNAR AGE
(when multiple podiums were reached, the first result was used. the second column is birthday - celebrate! - the third column is age when podiumed)
| 1 | VANSUMMEREN Johan | 4/02/1981 | 30 |
| 2 | CANCELLARA Fabian | 18/03/1981 | 25 |
| 3 | TJALLINGII Maarten | 5/11/1977 | 34 |
| 4 | HUSHOVD Thor | 18/01/1978 | 31 |
| 5 | FLECHA GIANNONI Juan Antonio | 17/09/1977 | 30 |
| 6 | BOONEN Tom | 15/10/1980 | 22 |
| 7 | POZZATO Filippo | 10/09/1981 | 28 |
| 8 | BALLAN Alessandro | 6/11/1979 | 27 |
| 9 | O'GRADY Stuart | 6/08/1973 | 34 |
| 10 | HINCAPIE George | 29/06/1973 | 32 |
Aw, look at my lovely Cance and Tombo totally dragging down the average to 29 years old. No youngsters allowed in Paris-Roubaix it seems. I'm so, so sorry Sep.
Don't give me that face Peter. You're totally not old enough to play with the big boys.
5. HAIR COLOUR
| 1 | VANSUMMEREN Johan | Brown |
| 2 | CANCELLARA Fabian | Brown |
| 3 | TJALLINGII Maarten | Brown |
| 4 | HUSHOVD Thor | Blonde |
| 5 | FLECHA GIANNONI Juan Antonio | Brown |
| 6 | BOONEN Tom | Blonde |
| 7 | POZZATO Filippo | Brown |
| 8 | BALLAN Alessandro | Brown |
| 9 | O'GRADY Stuart | Very little |
| 10 | HINCAPIE George | Brown |
Conclusion: Roubaix is one for the dark haired fellows on this earth. Really, only Tombo and Thor are exceptions to this rule. If you're not blonde or brown-haired - Dominic Klemme, hi! - there's really no point in going to the north of France at all. Unless you shave it all off. Then you can pretend to be Stuey.
6. EYE COLOUR
Did I just spend the better part of this evening staring lovingly into cyclists' eyes? Why yes I did. The stuff I endure in the name of research.
| 1 | VANSUMMEREN Johan | Gray |
| 2 | CANCELLARA Fabian | Brown |
| 3 | TJALLINGII Maarten | Brown |
| 4 | HUSHOVD Thor | Blue |
| 5 | FLECHA GIANNONI Juan Antonio | Blue-ish |
| 6 | BOONEN Tom | Brown |
| 7 | POZZATO Filippo | Brown |
| 8 | BALLAN Alessandro | Brown |
| 9 | O'GRADY Stuart | Blue? I think? Or maybe gray. |
| 10 | HINCAPIE George | Brown |
Conclusion: To win, you need brown eyes, mostly. Blue sometimes works also, but brown is preferable. You know who has lovely eyes? Cance has lovely eyes. I mean, really. Like everlasting pools of chocolate. Or maybe I'm mistaken and they were really blue? This could mess up the entire article! I better go check...
CONCLUSION
| 189 cm |
| 75 kg |
| brown hair |
| brown eyes |
| 30/06/1983 |
| Germany |
Yep Marcus, I'd totally give those odds a thumbs up too.
Thor picture by JPB93, Leukemans picture by Brassyn, Summie and Sagan picutre by Brendan A Ryan; Burghardt picture by Zoe Rochelle; all used with permission.