Le Tour '13: Green as Colorful as Ever... a Points Comp Preview

In Year Three of the Points Really Means Sprinters Competition at the Tour de France, we have perhaps our best revenge grudge match in a while. Yep, Andre Greipel didn't come here to be toyed with by Peter Sagan again.

What? Don't you mean Mark Cavendish? Surely the World's Fastest Man is the main topic in any such conversation, right? Well yes. And maybe not. This will be a tough and unpredictable Points battle, with the usual mix of old faces and newcomers elbowing their way in, set on a course that in no way tips the balance to one particular rider... or tries not to anyway. Let's get started!

First off, the rules:

• Every mass-start stage awards points in two places, the intermediate sprint and the finish.
• For every mass-start stage, the intermediate sprint is worth 20 points for 1st, 17 for 2nd, 15 for 3rd, and descending from there, fifteen places deep.
• For every mass-start stage that's not a major mountain event, the stage victory is worth 45 points, followed by 35 for 2nd, 30 for 3rd, then 26-22-20-18-etc., fifteen places deep.
• For mass-start stages in the lower mountains, the stage victory is worth 30 points, followed by 25-22-19-17-etc., fifteen places deep. For the highest mountains, the stage victory uses the 20-for-the-winner scale identical to the intermediate sprints. [Edited]
• For time trials, there is no intermediate sprint. The stage victory uses the 20-for-the-winner scale that intermediate sprints use. I'm not totally sure what they do for a team time trial.

The first year they employed this scale, we called it the Cavendish Rules, as the Tour seemed to be tipping things in the direction of the Manx Missile, who promptly won the Green Jersey for the first (and so far only) time, by a wide margin, after getting pipped by Alessandro Petacchi the previous year. The big format change was the elimination of multiple intermediate sprints worth small caches of points, and the inflation of both the intermediate point scales and the end-of-stage points on non-mountain days. In other words, they rewarded stage winners and guys who could manage a single halfway-point sprint. Like Cav. Et voila! Of course, all of that was in the years B.P., Before Peter. Since then, nothing has been the same.

Let's run thru the contenders. In not-insignificant order.

1. Peter Sagan, Cannondale

Why he's awesome: Barely needs recounting, but in case you're wondering, last year he beat Mark Cavendish in a sprint and also won the sprint for second in the climb to Big Bear Lake. Not on the same day, though he could have done that too. Also, I think he surfed that 100 foot wave in Portugal. On his race bike.

Why he's super-awesome: If you haven't seen him park his bike on the roof of his car, you've been under quite a nice, cozy rock all week. Sagan isn't just a sprinter who can climb, he's a sprinter who can climb and do BMX tricks that are actually harder than they appear. I mean, he had that thing locked in seconds, which means he rode straight into the slot. Not to go overboard but he's bigger than Jesus. Or, he might be, if not for his busy hands.

What he's done before: Won the green jersey by reducing the competition to a puddle of screaming jelly by the end of stage 12. His final margin of victory was 421 - 280, over Greipel.

What he's about to do: Re-Pete Performance

Verdict: Winnar!

2. Mrk Cvndsh, Omega Pharma-Quick Step

Why he's awesome: Fastest Man in the World. Former World Champion. Won the final Champs-Elysees stage for all 100 Tours de France.

Why he's super-awesome: Have you seen his latest business/marketing venture? I don't know what's better, his War on Vowels (long overdue, if you ask me) or his tagline: Fst as fck (hello! vowel at 12 o'clock!). Either he's continuing the long-established British tradition of using naughty language to the press or he's lining up with FCUK. Anyway, there's a thin green line thru the website, which is supposed to underline his intentions of winning the green jersey, which is not exactly news. But I'm cool with it.

What he's done before: He won the Green Jersey with relative ease over JJ Rojas Gil in 2011, pitting a pure sprinter against a not-so-pure-in-terms-of-skillset sprinter with some all-round ability. Rojas wasn't up to the pressure of Cavendish's constant bagging of the big game. But last year Sagan most certainly was. Sagan made it to every intermediate sprint available (depending on breakaway status) and more than a few final battles, while Cavendish missed a few points caches early on and quickly went into the tank.

What he's about to do: OK, here's where we can do the real breakdown. To the Back of An Envelope!

Let's say Sagan makes it to 17 of the 18 intermediate sprints. Oftentimes there is a breakaway up the road, taking the top several spots, and Sagan won't always beat Cav or Greipel on the easier days. But he'll average maybe 8-9 points per intermediate sprint. Stages 2, 7, 9, 14, 15,16 and 20 all look like days where Sagan might get to the intermediate sprint and Cavendish might not. That's close to 60 points, roughly, that Cav has to find somewhere else. By winning stages? OK, fine, and if Sagan gets pipped for second too then Cav can make that up in four or five stages. I can see Cav making that up.

But that comes with several big caveats. First, Cavendish has no margin for error. He can't lose to Greipel, he can't miss a makeable finale. No mistakes. Secondly, and of far greater significance, is that in how many of those seven stages does Sagan go on and make it to either the sprint for the win or for some lesser points haul, while Cav is nowhere to be seen? Is the real climbing deficit Cav has to overcome more like 130 points? Because there aren't 130 points out there on the course where he can elude Sagan. Not unless Sagan comes unglued.

On the other side of the ledger, I get that Cav has a team at his full disposal this time. Maybe OPQS can get him to three or four of those intermediate sprints and a few of the finales too. Maybe OPQS, the cleverest team in cycling when it comes to low-elevation stage tactics, can get enough guys up the road to take points off the table before Sagan can get them. Lefevre will have plenty of tricks up his sleeve. He'll need them all, and a perfect performance by Cavendish, to pull this off.

Verdict: Second.