Team Ambitions: Tour de France Edition

Ag2r-LaMondiale

What do they want?
Capture the hearts and minds of French people everywhere. Make us stop making ”doody shorts”-jokes. Get Romain Bardet on the podium in Paris.

They’d want JC Peraud up there as well but he insists that he’s only doing the TdF out of a responsibility to the teams sponsors but his condition isn’t good enough for the Tour. There’s also plenty of opportunity for stage glory on the Ardennes type stages for Bardet and Bakelants.

Will they?
Last year was almost a perfect storm with Peraud crying on the podium in the end. This year it all looks even better going into the Tour except for Peraud lacking form and Bardet seemingly being their only GC priority. At some point though things have to o wrong for Ag2r? Oddly it feels like Bardet has everything to lose in this race and I only hope he doesn’t feel that way and the pressure isn’t getting to him. They also have to navigate a tricky first week, with particularly the TTT that should be their achilles heel, before they get to the sweet part for them. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bardet loses some significant time somewhere along the way and has to settle for a slightly more anonymous GC placing. Ninth perhaps?

Astana

What do they want?
Show that the win last year wasn’t a fluke, only possible because others couldn’t stop themselves falling over. Make honor for glorious nation of Kazakhstan.

Will they?
Of all the contenders , Nibali’s approach to the Tour has looked the most menacing. Conta has the Giro to deal with, Q is an unknown and Froome just barely scraped up a win in the Dauphine when it sure as hell looked as if he was trying. Nibali seemed to be just training and messing around and won a stage when he felt like it. And in the Italian Nats it was much the same. So his form will be as good as last year I think. Question is how it stacks up?

BMC

What do they want?
Kill it in the first week with Greg van Avermaet and then turn their focus to keeping Tejay van Garderen in the running as far as possible. Perhaps all the way to a podium in Paris.

For the first week they’re pretty well set with GVA, Oss and Sammy Sanchez, problem is the competition is fierce. Van Avermaet is on a good year though. Tejay is another matter. With a strong Dauphine he’ll probably go in with more confidence than ever and he’ll need it. He’ll also be pretty lonely in the mountains I’d think because I’m not too convinced by a Caruso (not so-)fresh off the Giro and Dennis staying up there for too long. Is it SamSan to the rescue again?

Will they?
I’m not overly confident in Tejay escaping week one unscathed and then there is the matter of overcoming his jour sans tradition. With his newfound confidence I can just see him trying to stay with the bigs just one little bit too much and explode at some point.

Bora-Argon18

What do they want?
”Why gosh darned it, we’re just so happy to be here!” said the invited ProContis. We’ll just take anything, anything at all.”

They do have a couple of strong allrounders for breakaways in Barta and Huzarski but much will probably be centered on getting Sam Bennett in a position to see if he can match up in the sprints at this level. Nerz will be hoping to do something in the latter half, be it a stage hunt or trying to hang with the GC guys for a top15 - top10 spot.

Will they?
Meh. There’s no telling what sprinters will hit a hot streak of course but Bora have looked outgunned when they’ve tried playing with the big boys in the sprints so far this season.

Bretagne-Seche

What do they want?
*See Bora-Argon18 except with with a more arrogant French attitude. Think a cranky old Breton guy saying he’s really happy to be here, while tossing a cigarette butt on the floor and wiping the sweat off his neck with the yellow jersey.

Who’s going to do it then? If the question had been ”Who used to do it?” the obvious answer would be Fedrigo and Brice Feillu but this is 2015 and anything that isn’t going to come from a lucky breakaway is probably going to come from interesting young Eduardo Sepulveda who missed his TdF debut due to injury last year.

Will they?
Sepulveda is a great climber but his best has so far come in much smaller company than this. I’d say their best bet is still chucking everything they have at the breakaways and savor the ”Most Aggressive”-prizes they pick up along the way. Let whatever Sepulveda manages be a bonus.

Cofidis

What do they want?
For Nacer Bouhanni to be relatively unharmed from his Nats boo-boo. Win some sprints.

This team is built for one thang and one thang only, killing nazis delivering Bouhanni to the sprints.

Will they?
Oh lord, please let him be ok because this Cofidis team is so royally screwed if he isn’t. No one can stomach sitting though a TdF waiting for Dani Navarro to bore audiences to death on his way to 8th place either. And we wanted to see Kenneth Vanbilsen in April, not July.

Etixx-QuickStep

What do they want?
Race the hell out of the first week, win everything. Then go home. But ok, if they have to hang around for three weeks then Uran and Kwiatkowski can do their thing and Cav win on the Champs again.

As for who will do it, Tony Martin, Cav, Stybar, Kwiat, Trentin, take your pick. There’s not a blunt tool in this box.

Will they?
You did read that Kittel is staying at home, right? That opens the big door that Cav will never admit to being grateful for. With Tony M the favorite to grab the first yellow jersey Etixx have a good shot at achieving their goal of dominating the race until it hits the mountains. As for Uran….. I dunno? If he was playing the long game at the Giro with the ultimate goal was peaking in the TdF that would be quite something. But I don’t buy it.

FDJ

What do they want?
Establishing themselves as France’s team. Get on the podium and get some mileage out of Demare.

Thibaut Pinot, the French Climbing Sensation, should be a good bet to follow up his podium from last year on this course. Suisse was a tasty indicator (or

Will they?
Pinot is a level up from last year, in confidence and poise if nothing else. The support is so-so, Morabito has been added for experienced climbing domestique duties and Geniez is here with newfound Giro confidence but on the other hand the two strongest cards from last year Vichot and Jeanneson have been complete busts this year and aren’t even riding. And then there’s the fact that as a french team they absolutely will not commit to one single goal. They’ll be chasing sprints with Demare and gunning for stagewins with just about everyone else. It could be costly for Pinot if he actually turns out to be on level with the four bigs.

Photo: Lionel Bonaventure, AFP/Getty

IAM

What do they want?
Rise from mediocrity. They have to do something of note somewhere,they can’t just ride around performing reasonably well and looking smart in their stylish kit, they have to put wins on the board sometime. Someone must rise up and do something that is above average and that beats expectations. Anybody.

Their best chances is probably Chavanel  finding himself again and pulling off something like what he was producing at QuickStep or Frank finding his climbing again and sneaking himself into the top 10.

Will they?
How about that stylish kit, huh? Isn’t it something? I can smell that BMC merger creeping ever closer.

Lampre-Merida

What do they want?
For the Tour de France to be held in June so Rui Costa would have a legitimate shot. Other than that this is a team that will be over the moon with a stagewin or two. Except for Costa who will probably nurse some hope that he could actually be a Grand Tour GC-rider.

There’s also Cimolai to make a token appearance in the sprints and he may be a factor on some of the uphill ones even if the competition in that niche is soulcrushing. Serpa, Valls and the Durasek-bunny should give them some legitimate chances in mountain day attacks.

Will they?
Costa is class and mostly pulls of something of value although I wouldn’t bet on what in advance. It could be a win on one of the Mur finishes, it could be a surprising GC result  or it could be something like the kind of wins that Gallopin pulled off last year. Who knows? The one thing we do know is that Pippo will once again fail to merit his teamselection but that barely even qualifies as a prediction at this point does it?

Lotto-Soudal

What do they want?
For André Greipel to piss off Cav something tremendously by winning sprints and then chase some wins on the tricky non-mountain stages.

Greipel and his merry band may be the best unit in the sprints again but hard to say how much payoff he will get for it. Tony Gallopin got a taste of the glory last year and this years course offers almost as good opportunities for him. With guys like DeGendt and Wellens they’re well set for some random stagehunting as well because those two have capacity in the really hard terrain.

Will they?
Greipel has looked brilliant in the classics but as far as sprints go he seems less hungry in the big bunch sprints. A lot is still built around him though so he should be firing on all cylinders here. As for the others they should be good for another win but it will be hard to have as great a year as last year. I predict an anonymous three weeks.

Movistar

What do they want?
World domination for Nairo! Although Eusebio Unzue’s secret wet dream is probably that the favorite son Valverde comes out on top.

Will they?
I’m struggling to find what would indicate that Quintana wouldn’t win it. Cobbles? No. Timebonuses? Won’t be enough. Internal struggles? Nah, Movistar aren’t stupid in the end (and neither is Piti). I think it is going to take some aggressive tactics from the opponents to put Q out of contention and I’m not seeing how that would play out.

MTN-Qubeka

What do they want?
To be recognized for their racing, not just their ”good story” They are looking rather well set all in all for a good first run at the Tour. With an in-form Boasson Hagen and perhaps most of all a strong Steve Cummings I could see them poach a stage win somewhere and then their race is a hit. As a bonus there is a tremendously interesting challenge in the mountains for their band of promising Africans. Meintjes, Jacques Janse van Rensburg and youngest rider in the race Merhawi Kudus could all surprise somewhere. Not over the whole three weeks but they’ll let us know there here for sure.

Will they?
Perennial underachievers and young untested talent? This is basically like every team I’ve ever entered in the VDS. It has never worked out well.

Orica-Greenedge

What do they want?
For Michael Matthews to ride this like it was the Giro and to rub Sky’s faces in the british talents they lost out on. Generally kill it until the stage 9 TTT.

Much like the Qubeka climbing kids the Yateses are probably here to learn and maybe pull off some surprise result, albeit the expectations are probably on a bit higher level for the British twins. For the first week Orica are as ridiculously stacked as they were for the Ardennes except now they also have Gerrans back. Plus Durbridge should be an interesting outsider for the TT. Plus they are always a TTT factor. Lots of plusses on this team.

Will they?
They won’t be a factor in the GC and not in the purest bunch sprints either but other than that they have people who can win on just about every stage. If they get in one of their GT-momentums this could be a hoot for them but otoh as ridiculously stacked as they are, this is a ridiculously stacked TdF too so they could end up coming up just short a lot of the time too.

Cannondale-Garmin

What do they want?
For their luck to turn. After a bad bad year they need Talansky to live up to his GC-potential and Dan Martin to produce something, be it on GC or in the shape of stage wins. Behind them is a group of quality riders but not of the type that you can easily see what results they can get in this kind of competition. Navardauskas and van Baarle are powerhouses and Haas and Langeveld are solid second tier riders. Problem is second tier riders need the stars to align to get wins in July.

Will they?
They couldn’t make a better Grand Tour for Dan Martin and still there’s a lingering doubt whether he should even bother pursuing three-week results. I’m in the skeptical camp and maintain that Talansky is their better bet even if he’d like some timetrialing in there to give hime a better shot. It’ll be an intriguing team to follow but I fear the results may not be a huge improvement on their season so far.

Europcar

What do they want?
Survive. No seriously, that’s literally what it’s all about. Desperately trying to impress some French business enough for them to step in and save the team with a new sponsor deal.

Will they?
It’s looking rather thin isn’t it? An outgunned Coquard for the sprints and Rolland in the bunch of seventhousand riders all looking likely to take place 4-10 on GC. I’m making Voeckler-faces here trying to summon the power to say something positive about their chances.

That's what Giant want to see again. (Photo: Bryn Lennon Getty)

Giant-Alpecin

What do they want?
This was so easy before when it could be 100% about Kittel. Now it’s more complicated but perhaps more interesting too. They could legitimately go for a bunch of the trickier sprints with Degenkolb and maybe aim for Green. Dumoulin will desperately be wanting to usurp Martin and take Yellow on the first day ”at home” in the Netherlands, as tall an order as it may be. And then there is Barguil, another great climber making his TdF debut and no one knows where that can lead.

Will they?
Take yellow? No, but then again you never know. 14 km is short enough to perhaps throw up some surprises and on an off day it just might trip up the two Tonys.

Degenkolb is the more interesting story. I’m going to argue that it was actually a blessing in disguise that Kittel stayed home as there are more stages that suit Dege than there were for Kittel. The problem of course is the insane competition in the ”demanding sprint” niche with Sagan, Matthews and Kristoff but hey, Degenkolb has had a ”decent” season against those guys so far.

Katusha

What do they want?
Kristoff to dominate the first half of the race like he did the spring and then Purito Rodriguez to grab this one last great chance on a near perfect course for him.

Will they?
I’m liking Kristoff for Green more than anything else which is odd and will likely to be written off as a bit of anti-norse-ism. I think he will be the one most actively aiming for it though while at the same time l wonder if he won’t get lost a bit in the big sprint bruhahas and may not come away with as many wins as his spring would indicate. It would be almost shocking if he didn’t win one stage at least though.

And then there’s old Purito who is probably cursing that he didn’t get this parcourse two or three years ago. At this point I’m doubtful he will be a factor for the podium but then again that kind of underestimation might well be his greatest ally as most eyes are pointed at other riders at this point.

LottoNL-Jumbo

What do they want?
All GC all the time. They have Kelderman and a re-awakened Gesink both with a top 5-10 in their sights. And they have the support they need in all terrain. They also want Sep to have the luck on the cobbles that he lacked in April.

Will they?
Predicting the outsiders in this GC-fight is almost a ridiculous task in this TdF. I’ll go with the stock answer that Kelderman will keep impressing while Gesink will keep running into trouble somewhere along the three weeks, leaving him disappointed again. I know Kelderman ha been anonymous so far but it smells of all-in-for-the-Tour prep to me.

Team Sky

What do they want?
For Froome to stop falling off his bike at the Tour. For everything to be like 2013 again. Win.It all.

Will they?
They very well might but it won’t be the kind of procession win that Sky has taken in the past I bet. It’s going to be a grubby, dirty fight with tiny margins between the best. The interesting thing to see is how well Sky can function in that kind of race. They have all the elements to dictate their own race in many ways and not worry too much about the game plans of others but I wonder if they will stick with that in the face of what will be thrown at them here?

Tinkoff-SaxoBank

What do they want?
What no one has done since 1999, win the double.  They’ve already started taking a page out of the Pantani playbook by playing down their chances saying they aren’t going in as favorites coming off the Giro but unlike Pantani they’ve unfortunately gone around for six months before that telling everyone that this is the plan. So favorites they are whether they acknowledge it or not. And amazingly there’s Sagan as a joker to with any number of stages ideally suited to him. If it weren’t for the fact that he was on this team he’d be the obvious pick to win 4-5 stages.

Will they?
No. Uncle Oleg and your ”Three GT Challenge” - meet reality. With Contador and too many helpers (5, and they're old too) with Giro in their legs these guys will get a drubbing in the Alps if not before. Wouldn’t surprise me if Majka is the one who saves their bacon again. As for Sagan I will once again trot out my prediction that he will be the loyal helper to a much larger degree than anyone thinks and it will both affect his stagewin chances and entirely rule him out of the Green discussion. I shall stand by to receive my spanking in three weeks when I've once again totally misread Sagan.

Trek Factory Racing

What do they want?
Whilst Cancellara has carried this team since the Schlecks went awol this is a team that really crave stage racing success and Mollema is the card they put their money on. They need some GC relevance. A yellow on stage one wouldn’t hurt either.

Cancellara for the opening TT of course and maybe the Roubaix stage is probably what managers are hoping for. I doubt he can keep interested for much longer. Mollema needs to step it up a notch for a top 5 on GC. And then there’s Arredondo for some Polka action and Zubeldia for doing God-knows-what for three weeks and finishing ninth.

Will they?
As impressive as he is from time to time, especially with his versatility it’s hard to see Mollema doing better than 6th or 7th in this kind of company. I’d actually put more money on taking a stagewin on the early climbs like Huy or Mur de Bretagne than on him improving on his previous best GC (6th in 2013). Zubeldia otoh, he’ll get ninth for sure. As for Cancellara, is his heart in it any more? It’s been a long time since he found the TdF fun and challenging.